Star-studded pitching matchups don't exactly light up the board on this Friday evening's slate of games, so I've chosen to fade some of the most underperforming offenses in the league with some pitching matchups that I find favorable. The Tigers, White Sox, and Brewers are all decisively bottom-10 offenses in 2023, which is likely a large part of the reason why they all rank in the top-10 of baseball in NRFI success rate. Tarik Skubal and Corbin Burnes are guys that I would trust no matter who they're pitching against, and the unknowns in Chris Sale and Michael Kopech have advantageous matchups against weak lineups that they should be able to roll through.
2023 NRFI (38-32, -0.91 Units)
Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI)
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers - No Runs 1st Inning (+100 @ DraftKings)
Chris Sale returns to the mound for the Red Sox this evening in what will be his first start since June 1. Though we don't have a full season's sample size of outings due to his time missed, what we saw out of Sale before his injury was very promising. While his actual ERA of 4.58 doesn't look all that great, his xERA of 3.61 is nearly a full run lower and ranks him in the 71st percentile, so he's likely been the victim of some bad luck and primed for positive regression. He ranks in the 60th percentile or better in average exit velo, xSLG, and whiff%, and he ranks 78th percentile or better in hard hit%, K%, BB%, and chase rate. As I covered in my last article, the Tigers have an atrocious offense, ranking bottom-5 in 2B, HR, BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG. I expect Sale to make quick work of this Tigers offense in his return back to the mound.
The Tigers will be sending out Tarik Skubal, who has also dealt with some injury issues this year and will be making his 7th start of the season. What we've seen out of Skubal this year has been fantastic, as he's pitching to the tune of a 3.67 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP. What's crazy is that his 2.29 xERA would be up there with the best of the game if he qualified with enough innings, so he's actually been better than his numbers imply. His walk rate is at the lowest that it's been in his entire career at 3.8%, and he's been scoreless in 4 out of his 6 starts since his return. Though the Red Sox lineup is nothing to scoff at, they do perform worse against LHP, and the Tigers are a top-10 team in baseball in terms of NRFI scored and NRFI allowed, putting them at a 54% success rate for NRFI plays (6th in the MLB).
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers - No Runs 1st Inning (-110 @ Caesars)
This play is admittedly more of a fade of the Brewers’ offense than it is a play on White Sox starter Michael Kopech, who has had a tough year, to say the least. The Brewers are somehow in control of the top spot in the NL Central with an offense that rivals the lack of production of the aforementioned Tigers, as they rank bottom 10 in 2B, HR, AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG. Their splits against LHP and RHP are nearly identical, so they confer no advantages against the righty Kopech. Despite Kopech's struggles, he still throws very hard and has a ton of life on his fastball, which has helped him to a whiff% and K% above that of league average. If Kopech can stay in the strike zone here, he should be able to overpower this really underwhelming Milwaukee lineup.
If I looked back through all of my NRFI articles this year, I would guess that Corbin Burnes of the Brewers is at the very top of the list of pitchers that I have featured, and for good reason. Burnes is having another dominant season, and his Baseball Savant page may be the prettiest in all of baseball. He ranks in at least the 85th percentile in average exit velo, hard hit%, barrel%, and xSLG, which is absolutely absurd. He also ranks 60th percentile or better in K%, whiff%, chase rate, and xBA, which is not too shabby either. He's still in good form, as his last 50, 100, and even 250 batters faced would indicate, and I don't see any of those numbers regressing against a White Sox team that is absolutely in shambles right now. The White Sox rank 19th or worse in 2B, HR, AVG, OPS, and SLG, and rank dead last in baseball in OBP. They also hit markedly worse against RHP than LHP, so Burnes will have that advantage as well. Finally, NRFI trends are also in our favor for this matchup, as both teams rank in the top-7 in terms of NRFI success rate.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- 2023 NFL Preseason Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- WNBA Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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