MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/4)

I'm playing the hits for my NRFI selections tonight, going with two of the most reliable teams in baseball in terms of NRFI success with games involving the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins. Both teams excel at preventing runs during the 1^st inning while simultaneously struggling to score runs of their own, which is exactly what we're looking for in these plays. While the teams they are taking on can have imposing lineups, the Diamondbacks have really been struggling since the calendar flipped to July, and Jesus Luzardo has the stuff to overmatch any offense in the league. The Marlins and Twins have been great to me all season, and I like each pitcher's matchup to keep that trend going this evening.

Friday’s MLB Best NRFI Bets

2023 NRFI (37-30, +1.19 Units)

Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers

For the second straight year lefty veteran Jordan Montgomery was dealt at the trade deadline, this time joining the AL West-leading Texas Rangers. Montgomery has put together another solid campaign, holding a career-best 3.42 ERA, and his advanced metrics suggest that he's just the type of pitcher that should succeed in an NRFI play. He has a good command of the strike zone, ranking in the 70^th percentile in BB% by walking fewer than 7% of the batters he faces, and although he pitches to contact, he's been able to avoid hard hit balls for the most part. Montgomery ranks firmly above league average in hard hit% and average exit velo (59^th and 62^nd percentiles, respectively), and he'll be dealing to a Marlins team that lacks power offensively. The Marlins are a bottom-5 team in HR, bottom-10 in 2B, and a bottom-half team in both OPS and SLG. Montgomery's soft-contact pitching style is a great matchup to take on this Marlins lineup.

Jesus Luzardo has had an absolutely fantastic year for the Marlins, holding a 3.38 ERA and 3.67 xERA, putting him in the top third of all pitchers in that category. His effectiveness comes in an entirely different way than Montgomery's, as he excels at generating the swing and miss. Luzardo is one of the hardest throwing left-handed starters in the MLB, which has helped him to an 81^st percentile chase rate and an 85^th percentile whiff%. He's striking out nearly 30% of all batters he faces (82^nd percentile), and his BB% is actually better than Montgomery's, so he's not allowing the free pass at a high rate, either. The Cardinals fare pretty equally against both LHP and RHP, but their power numbers do dip slightly against LHP, which will help Luzardo as well. Additionally, the Marlins have only allowed a 1^st inning run in just 21 of their games this season, which is the best mark in the MLB and has propelled them to a league-high NRFI success rate of 66%.

Bet: No Runs 1^st Inning (-105 @ Bet365)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins

Bailey Ober will get the ball for the Twins tonight, hoping to continue what has been a very impressive 2023 season and certainly the best of his short career. Ober has outstanding advanced numbers, ranking in the 59^th percentile or better in average exit velo, xERA, xBA, K%, and whiff%. He's one of the best at getting batters to chase his pitches (94^th percentile), and even when they do make contact, his 80th-percentile hard hit% tells us that the balls in play are not doing much damage. His BB% has always been great, but this year's 4.6% walk rate is the best of his career and good for the 93^rd percentile. His performances dating back to his past 50, 100, and 250 batters faced tell us that he's been consistently in good form and actually continually trending in the positive direction, and he faces an Arizona lineup that has really been struggling of late. In my Tuesday article, I pointed out that the D-Backs had regressed nearly a full run per game in the month of July, and they've managed to score only 5 runs in 3 games since the beginning of August, including a shutout last night. Minnesota ranks 3^rd-highest in the MLB in NRFI success rate, only surrendering a run in the opening frame in 26 of their matchups, and I expect that trend to continue against an Arizona lineup that has not been performing well over the past month.

Merrill Kelly has been huge for this Diamondbacks squad that was desperately searching for some starting pitching depth behind Zac Gallen, and he will get the start for them tonight. Kelly's 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP are both very respectable and like some of the other pitchers mentioned in this article, he's been great at getting batters to come up empty on his pitches. His whiff% sits at the 58^th percentile, his K% is at the 64^th percentile, and then his chase rate is among the best in the game in the 89^th percentile. The Twins have been a puzzling offensive team all year, with middling SLG and OPS numbers while ranking in the bottom 10 in BA and OBP. Not only do the Twins not allow runs in the 1^st inning, but they also rank in the bottom half of baseball in runs produced in the first inning, and I think that the combination of factors gives Kelly a great chance to navigate through the opening frame unscathed.

Bet: No Runs 1^st Inning (-111 @ FanDuel)