Welcome to another beautiful day as we've reached May baseball. Let's bet some NRFI's! NRFI stands for No-Run First Inning. It's a popular betting market where gamblers wager on whether the first inning of an MLB game will end with zero runs scored by either team. Pretty simple. NRFI bets are the best because they're quick – sometimes you'll know the outcome within minutes. NRFI bets can provide an edge over other markets if you’ve researched. I'm here to help provide that edge. As always, shop around for the best odds and be on the lookout for lineup announcements, which can significantly impact the outcome.
We went perfect last week and I hope to do the same today. Let's dive into some games on this May 1st slate.
Friday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Last Time: 3-0 | Season: 9-5 | 2025 Season: 30-25
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Noah Schultz vs. German Marquez
The Chicago White Sox travel out West to face the San Diego Padres as the home team tries to continue their winning ways. Surprisingly, the top of the Padres order has been subpar this year, recording first inning runs at one of the lowest rates in baseball with just six in their first 30 games of the season. Noah Schultz has only made three career starts after being called up in April but so far he's limited opponents to a .100 batting average in his three starts. He's found control recently too, so I expect the Pads to go down quietly early in game. German Marquez counters with the Padres and despite his 4.38 ERA, he's limited first inning runs in three of his five starts this season. The White Sox are middle of the pack offensively early in games and the top of the order doesn't have much experience against the Padres starter. If you want to get spicy, you can bet the White Sox first inning moneyline but for this practice, I'm fading runs in the opening frame with solid odds.
Pick: NRFI (-110 at bet365)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers: Emmet Sheehan vs. Matthew Liberatore
In this National League bout, the Los Angeles Dodgers head to visit the Arch as they take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in YRFI rate and the Dodgers still feel due for positive regression in that category considering the names at the top of their lineup. Matthew Liberatore goes for the Cardinals and he has struggled early in games with a 6.00 ERA in the first innings this year. Despite being a southpaw he has reverse splits, allowing a 1.263 OPS to lefties this year compared to a .760 for righties. It is a small sample size so far and for his career the splits aren't that aggressive but with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman up early, Liberatore will be in dangerous waters. The Dodgers counter with Emmet Sheehan who has historically been much worse on the road this year and for his career. In 18 home outings across his three year career, Sheehan owns a 2.72 ERA, on the road in 15 outings that number jumps to a 5.61. This year he's also allowed five first inning runs across five starts and will face at least two lefties at the top of the Cardinals lineup, who he allows a 1.003 against. I'm expecting a lot of runs early and to find this at near plus money feels like a steal. I may even bet some alts here.
Pick: YRFI (-105 at DraftKings)
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Robbie Ray vs. Shane McClanahan
Finally, we have an interleague and coastal duel between the San Francisco Giants and the Tampa Bay Rays. Robbie Ray has been electric early in games, allowing just one run in his six starts early on, limiting opponents to a .190 batting average and .530 OPS. Shane McClanahan goes for Tampa and he's been equally efficient in the opening frame, only allowing one run in five starts. Offensively, both teams rank in the bottom 10 at YRFI, or top 10 at NRFI, whichever you prefer. The point is, I don't expect a lot of run production across the board here so am happy to ride the Under.
Pick: NRFI (-120 at bet365)
