If you've been following my NRFI articles, then you won't be surprised to see that I'm once again featuring the Miami Marlins, who have the highest success rate of NRFI wagers by a wide margin due to their elite starting pitching staff and offense that doesn't offer a ton of power. In the other game, I'm targeting two of my favorite young pitchers in the league in what should be a dynamite pitching matchup, with Triston McKenzie taking on Zac Gallen. I've hit my last 4 NRFI wagers and 5 of my last 6, and I love these matchups to keep that streak going on this Friday evening.
2023 NRFI (23-18, +0.82 Units)
Friday’s MLB Best NRFI Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
The Marlins continue to be the most profitable team in baseball in the NRFI market, with a success rate of 68% (10% higher than the 2nd place team, Minnesota), and I'm going right back to the well to back that trend against the Nationals this evening. The Marlins will be sending out the reigning Cy Young winner in Sandy Alcantara, who seems to have stabilized himself after a pretty rough start to the season. His xERA is 0.64 lower than his actual ERA, his fastball is still among the best in the league, and his most recent 50 plate appearances would suggest that his xWOBA is trending in a positive direction, above league average. He'll be taking on a Nationals lineup that doesn't offer a ton of pop, ranking bottom 10 in SLG, OPS, 2B, and HR. They'll also be in their decisively worse hitting splits, as they hit RHP much less successfully than they do LHP.
Trevor Williams will go for the Nationals, a pitcher that I've successfully backed in this market a few times due to his ability to generate soft contact. He does not throw hard, and his spin rates are among the slowest in the league, yet his average exit velo and hard hit% are well above the league average, among the 65th percentile. He also does not walk many batters, ranking in the 65th percentile in that category, and he's inducing batters to chase pitches at the 62nd percentile. The Marlins are similar offensively to the Nationals in the fact that they do not possess a ton of power, ranking bottom 10 in 2B and HR and just outside of the bottom 10 in OPS and SLG. They'll also be in their demonstrably worse hitting splits against the RHP Williams, so I like his matchup even more.
Bet: No Run 1st Inning (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians
Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Guardians, pitching in just his 3rd game this season after recovering from an offseason shoulder injury. Albeit a very small sample size, but his xERA in those two starts is a minuscule 2.29, and he's shown the ability to consistently dominate as a top-of-the-rotation arm since he came onto the scene in 2020. His Statcast metrics over his first 3 seasons have been incredibly similar, and they tell the story that McKenzie is well above league average in xBA, xWOBA, K%, whiff%, and chase rate. He also nearly halved the rate at which he walked batters in 2022, one of the few flaws from his first 2 seasons in the majors. The Diamondbacks offense is certainly nothing to scoff at, but I love McKenzie in this spot and I expect him to continue to build himself back up to the pitcher that he has been in his previous 3 seasons.
The Diamondbacks will turn to Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen, who has been absolutely tremendous with a 7-2 record, 3.10 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP on the 2023 season. His swing and miss potential has been elite, as he ranks in the top 1/3 of baseball in K%, whiff%, and chase rate. He's walking barely over 5% of the batters he faces, which is in88th percentile. Gallen has actually never had an xERA over 4.00, telling us that no matter how good he has been, his performance has been no fluke. He'll be taking on a really poor Guardians offense, which ranks bottom 10 in OBP, bottom 3 in SLG and OPS, and dead last in HR (by a pretty wide margin). They get no benefit from hitting RHP either, as their SLG and OPS are actually slightly higher against LHP. As long as McKenzie holds up his end of the bargain, I expect Gallen to cruise through the Guardians lineup to get this bet home. Additionally, Chase Field has ranked well below the league average in terms of HR rate since 2021, so we'll get that added benefit in this matchup.
Bet: No Run 1st Inning (-115)
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