Friday's nearly full slate of MLB games introduces some intriguing new interleague matchups, featuring the Blue Jays vs Dodgers, Brewers vs Yankees, and Red Sox vs Cubs. That last one will be featured in this article, as both teams are trotting out terrific starting pitchers with offenses that are dealing with some key injuries early in the year.
It also features some less-than-intriguing matchups like the Marlins vs Nationals: two underachieving teams with horrendous offensive struggles. The best part about the NRFI market is that we can cash bets in multiple different ways, and I'll break it all down for you in this article.
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Friday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI: 8-6,+0.30 Units
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs
Play: NRFI (-140 via Bet365)
Tanner Houck got us to the window in this same market earlier in the week, and I'm going right back to the well with another Red Sox pitcher in Kutter Crawford tonight.
Crawford has improved every single year of his career so far, culminating in what has been a fantastic start to the 2024 season. His xERA of 2.61 and xBA of 0.182 are both phenomenal, as he has done an excellent job of avoiding hard contact, with a hard-hit% and average exit velocity that both rank above the 85th percentile. He also generates strikeouts at a 27.3% clip, which falls just shy of the 75th percentile.
While the Cubs lineup has certainly been above average in the early going, they just lost a critical power threat in Cody Bellinger due to fractured ribs. I like for Crawford to continue his hot start with a clean first inning tonight.
As good as Crawford has been this season, Shota Imanaga has arguably been even better for the Cubs. After finally surrendering an earned run in his last start, Imanaga's ERA sits at 0.87 with a WHIP of 0.75. Though his xERA is decisively higher at 3.37 (it would be nearly impossible for it to be as low as his actual numbers), it's still very respectable and qualifies for the top 1/3 of all pitchers.
Imanaga has incredible swing-and-miss stuff with a whiff% and K% that are both at least at the 60th percentile and an insane chase rate that comes in north of the 90th percentile. He also has great command and control of the strike zone, walking just 2.4% of the batters he faces.
Similar to the Cubs, the Red Sox lineup is also dealing with key injuries to power bats like Trevor Story and Triston Casas. Rafael Devers has been in and out of the lineup as well with different nagging issues over the past few weeks. I like Imanaga to have a lot of success tonight, and I think we're in for a real pitcher's duel between these two this evening.
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals
Play: NRFI (-115 via DraftKings & BetMGM)
This play has much more to do with fading the offenses than it does backing the starting pitchers, as neither guy will blow you away with their stats or advanced metrics. That's somewhat disappointing, because Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins has been one of my favorite pitchers to back over the past few seasons.
Luzardo’s fastball velocity still seems to be there, as one of the hardest-throwing lefties in the league. He's still generating whiffs at a top-25% clip, but he's had much less success against opposing offenses this season. Lucky for him, the Marlins welcome the offensively-challenged Nationals to LoanDepot Park tonight.
The Nats are once again decisively a bottom-10 offense, ranking 20th or worse in HR, AVG, OPS, SLG, and BB. Looking at Luzardo's game log, he has faced some pretty challenging offenses in the Cubs, Braves, and Yankees to this point, so the Nationals should offer him a bit of relief and potentially serve as a turning point for his season.
Veteran righty Trevor Williams gets the ball for the Nationals tonight, and he has actually fared very well this season with numbers that would suggest he's having one of the best seasons of his career. His ERA of 2.91 and WHIP of 0.97 are both great. His xERA and xBA are both at least at the 69th percentile, so his numbers aren't all that flukey.
Williams does not have an overpowering arm. He also doesn't generate a ton of whiffs, but he does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a ground ball rate of 49.1% that puts him in the 73rd percentile. Tonight, he'll be up against a Marlins lineup that is somehow decisively worse than that of the aforementioned Nationals.
Miami has been bad all around, ranking among the bottom five in HR, AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG while drawing the fewest walks in all of baseball. I think Williams's pitching style will play well against this Marlins team that hasn't displayed the ability to hit anybody this year.
I like Williams to have a clean slate in the first inning. Both pitchers also get the bonus of pitching at LoanDepot Park, which ranks 23rd in terms of HR rate for all MLB ballparks since 2022.
