Friday's slate of MLB action is loaded with quite a few games where I favor the over in what figure to be high-scoring games containing pretty potent offenses and below-average starting pitching, but I still came up with a duo of NRFI plays that I feel really good about. The first game showcases two of the best left-handed starting pitchers in the American League, both of which have been highlighted numerous times in my articles throughout this season. The latter game features two lesser-known commodities in regard to starting pitching, though both right-handers have shown to be dominant so far in the big leagues. Both games also take place in extremely pitcher-friendly ballparks, which is something that I look to target in these hot summer months.
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Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: (41-30; +2.93 Units)
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals - No Run 1st Inning (-142 at FanDuel)
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Cole Ragans
Two of the most dominant southpaws in the game face off this evening, with Tarik Skubal of the Tigers going against Cole Ragans of the Royals. Skubal has likely frequented these articles more than any other pitcher in the league and for good reason, as the AL Cy Young favorite has absolutely dominated in nearly every statistical category. Skubal's 2.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP are incredible and absolutely backed by his 2.74 xERA and 0.212 xBA. He ranks above the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and chase% and comes in above the 90th percentile in whiff%, K%, BB%, and hard-hit%. The only two metrics that aren't dark red on his baseball savant page are his barrel% and ground ball%, which are a very respectable 61st and 72nd percentile, respectively. Skubal draws a Royals offense that absolutely falls off a cliff on the road, to the point where people are starting to believe that they are cheating in some regard in their home ballpark because the drop-off is so stark.
Ragans has been exceptional in his own right, holding a 3.37 ERA that's actually bested by his 3.30 xERA with a very respectable 1.17 WHIP and 0.230 xBA. Ragans has electric swing and miss stuff, with a 74th percentile chase%, 88th percentile K%, and 93rd percentile whiff%. His hard-hit% and average exit velocity are both above league average, and his barrel% sits above the 70th percentile. He'll be up against a Tigers offense that has been pretty bad no matter where they play, as they rank 26th or worse in OPS, AVG, and OBP. Both teams have slightly depressed power numbers against LHP, and Comerica Park ranks 7th-worst in overall offensive ballpark factors and 4th-worst overall in home run rate compared to other ballparks, since 2022.
Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies - No Run 1st Inning (-105 at Bet365)
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Tyler Phillips
The 2nd-year starter Bryan Woo gets the nod for Seattle tonight as a somewhat overlooked pitcher in the middle of an outstanding Mariners pitching staff. Woo has pitched to the tune of a 2.35 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP, a 98th percentile xERA of 2.49, and a 78th percentile xBA of 0.220. While he doesn't have incredible swing-and-miss stuff, he has immaculate control of the strike zone (99th percentile BB% of 2.9%) and he is one of the best in the league at avoiding hard contact. Woo's 2.5% barrel rate ranks in the 98th percentile and has contributed in large part to his 77th percentile average exit velocity and 79th percentile hard-hit%. Simply put, nobody is squaring this man up. While the Phillies do have a pretty formidable lineup, their numbers are slightly worse against RHP and this is a circumstance where I'm trusting Woo's ability to generate soft contact to get the better of the Phils in the opening frame.
Opposing Woo will be another young right-handed starter, as rookie Tyler Phillips will make his 4th start of the season. While Phillips doesn't have a large enough sample size to qualify for ranking in statistical categories, what we've seen from him in limited action has been very good. His 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP are both outstanding, and he has pitched 15 innings of consecutive scoreless baseball after getting touched up a bit in his first MLB start (in a game against the A's in which he still recorded the win). Nine of those scoreless innings came in his last start, where he tossed a complete game shutout and only surrendered 4 hits to a really good Guardians offense. While the Mariners did make a few notable additions at the trade deadline, they have been putrid up to this point, ranking in the bottom-5 in AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG. Both pitchers are indeed young, but I trust them to each have continued success tonight in a ballpark that grades out dead-last in overall offensive ballpark factors, since 2022.
