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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (8/23)

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After a late-July/early August swoon in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market, things are starting to heat back up with five consecutive winners from these articles. The theme for Friday's NRFI plays is underwhelming offenses and splits advantages, as four out of the pitchers covered today have a clear advantage over the opposing offenses. Plus, all of the offenses are middling to well below average.

We've got some studs taking the mound as well, headlined by guys like Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi. I find today’s prices to be reasonable, providing the perfect combination to keep this streak rolling.

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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

2024 NRFI Recordd: 46-38 (+1.27 Units)

Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers

Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs. Nathan Eovaldi 

Second-year right-hander Tanner Bibee gets the ball for Cleveland tonight, a consistently steady presence at the top of what has been an injury-riddled season for Guardians pitchers. While Bibee isn't necessarily elite in any particular category, his all-around numbers and metrics are rock solid. His 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are both very good, with a 3.61 xERA that ranks in the 66th percentile.

He ranks above the 60th percentile in both barrel% and hard-hit%, with an average exit velocity that falls just shy of the 60th percentile. His swing-and-miss potential is the best part of his game, with a K% and chase rate that both sit in the top quartile of pitchers and a whiff% that sits comfortably above the 50th percentile. He'll face a Rangers lineup that has been feeling the World Series hangover all year long, as they currently rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs and 20th or worse in batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and slugging rate (SLG). Their numbers also take a slight dip against right-handed pitching, so he'll have the splits advantage in this matchup as well.

While Nathan Eovaldi's season has unfortunately been shortened due to injury, his numbers have once again been really impressive. He holds a 3.76 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP, with some elite underlying metrics to back it up. His chase rate ranks in the 89th percentile, with a whiff% and K% that both come in above the 60th percentile. He doesn't issue the free pass, with a BB% in the 85th percentile, and he generates a ground ball on more than half of the balls that are put into play against him.

It shocked me to see how far the Guardians’ offensive numbers have plummeted recently, as they began the season as one of the more prolific offenses in all of baseball. They currently rank 14th in the bigs in home runs, and they rank in the bottom half of baseball in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. While they pride themselves in having a platoon advantage in nearly any pitching matchup they face, their overall numbers (as well as Jose Ramirez's) take a dip against righties. I feel very comfortable backing Eovaldi and Bibee with their splits advantages against two bottom-half offenses in this game.

Pick: NRFI (-125 @ Bet365)

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals 

Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. MacKenzie Gore

Chris Sale gets the start for Atlanta tonight as the current favorite in the National League Cy Young race. He has been nothing short of spectacular this season, with a 2.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with all the advanced analytics to back up his on-field performance. His xERA bests his current ERA, sitting in the 97th percentile at 2.59, and his xBA of 0.208 ranks in the 88th percentile. He ranks above the 80th percentile in whiff%, barrel% and BB%, and he comes in above the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, chase%, K% and hard-hit%.

His ground ball rate of 46.8% also ranks in the 72nd percentile, so even if batters can square him up, they're hitting the ball on the ground at a high frequency. While this Nationals roster is certainly improved from years previous, they have been hurting to generate any sort of pop throughout their lineup, ranking 22nd or worse in both OPS and OBP and tied for dead-last in homers. Their numbers also take a slight dip against lefties. And they traded away one of their best right-handed hitters in Lane Thomas at the deadline.

Opposing Sale will be southpaw MacKenzie Gore, who is a pitcher I continue to believe is better than some of his numbers indicate. His 4.66 ERA and 1.58 WHIP are certainly not great, but those numbers are hard to believe when you consider some of the underlying metrics. He does a good job of limiting hard contact, with a barrel% in the 69th percentile and an average exit velocity ranking in the top quartile of all pitchers.

The swing-and-miss stuff is much better than most as well, with a whiff% in the 72nd percentile and a K% just shy of the 60th percentile. I've picked on this Braves lineup a few times down the stretch, as so much is missing from the team that dominated the MLB in most offensive categories last season. They rank only slightly above league average in OPS and SLG, and below league average in AVG and OBP. That's enough to get me over the hump to back Gore against them this evening.

Pick: NRFI (-130 @ Bet365)

Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants 

Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Hayden Birdsong

While this season might mark the start of the decline for Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo, he has still been extremely productive in the middle of one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Castillo's 3.58 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are both pretty good, with a very respectable 3.88 xERA. He ranks in the top third of pitchers in both chase% and BB%, with a K% that comes in above the 60th percentile.

His ground ball rate and whiff% both sit right around league average, and his xWOBA dating back to his previous 100 batters faced tells me he's in pretty good form right now. Castillo will pitch to a very middling Giants offense with a bottom-10 home run rate that fails to rank above 14th in AVG, OBP, OPS or SLG. Their numbers also take a significant drop against right-handed pitching, which works to Castillo's advantage tonight.

Hayden Birdsong, the rookie and fourth overall prospect in the Giants organization, will toe the slab tonight for San Francisco. While his sample size isn't huge, his 41+ innings pitched have shaped the kind of pitcher he has been in his debut season. Birdsong's 5.01 ERA is a bit of an eyesore, but his 70th percentile xBA of 0.228 tells me that he has been a bit unlucky.

His swing-and-miss arsenal is there, with a whiff% and K% that both rank above the 80th percentile. His hard-hit metrics are a little bit concerning, but his 44.8% ground ball rate does help offset that a bit. Birdsong draws the easiest matchup this evening, against a Mariners team that has watched their playoff chances evaporate due to offensive ineptitude. They currently rank 26th or worse in OBP, OPS and SLG with the worst AVG in all of Major League Baseball.

Pick: NRFI (-125 @ BetMGM, Bet365)

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