A little bit of a lighter slate this Monday evening in the MLB, with 10 teams set to have the day off. I've still got a 2-pack of NRFI plays for tonight, though neither one really resembles the other. In the first game, I'm trusting a couple of somewhat overlooked righties to post clean frames against some vastly underperforming offenses in a pitcher-friendly park. In my later game, however, I'm trusting a couple of aces to get it done against better offenses in a much more hitter-friendly environment. I love both of these plays tonight!
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All wagers are 0.5 units)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals will be sending out veteran RHP Seth Lugo to start on Monday night, who continues to prove that his move from bullpen to starter a few seasons ago was well worth it. Lugo holds a sparkling 1.48 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP, which he has done against some pretty potent offenses in the Braves, Brewers, and Tigers. While most of his underlying metrics may suggest that he's been closer to a league average pitcher, Lugo's fastball run value grades out in the 85th percentile, and both his overall pitching run value and his breaking run value grade out above the 94th percentile. Lugo will take on an Orioles offense that was been somewhat disappointing to begin 2026, as they grade out below league average in nearly every offense category including AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG.
The Orioles will counter with Kyle Bradish, who I remain high on despite the fact that his 5.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP are slightly disconcerting. Bradish's underlying numbers suggest that he has certainly been unlucky, with an xBA of 0.223 in the 65th percentile and an xERA of 3.06 which ranks in the top quartile of all pitchers. He also excels at keeping the ball out of the air, which is one of the things I look for in these NRFI plays, with a ground ball percentage that falls just shy of the 80th percentile. Bradish has a great matchup tonight against a Royals offense that has been absolutely sluggish in the early going, ranking bottom-6 in all of baseball in terms of HR, AVG, OPS, OBP, and SLG, and ranking bottom-10 in terms of walks drawn. Add in the fact that Kauffman Stadium grades out below league average in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors and bottom-5 in terms of HR factor since 2024, and this game has all the makings for a NRFI.
Pick: NRFI (-108 at BetRivers)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels will roll out southpaw Reid Detmers to start tonight, who I have pegged as one of the more underappreciated starting pitchers in baseball over the past couple of seasons. Detmers has gotten off to a very good start here in 2026, rocking a 3.57 ERA and 1.06 against the likes of the Mariners, Astros, Braves, and Yankees. All the underlying metrics that I like to look for have absolutely backed up his performance as well, as Detmers has an excellent xBA of .208 which ranks in the top quartile of all pitchers and an xERA of 2.53 in the 87th percentile that actually suggests that he's been a little bit unlucky. His swing and miss stuff grades out among the best in baseball, as he sits in the top quartile of all pitchers in terms of whiff rate and strikeout rate, with an unbelievable chase rate in the 94th percentile. He doesn't walk many, with a manageable walk rate of 6.4%, and both his breaking and offspeed pitching run values grade out above the 90th percentile. While the Blue Jays are certainly an offense that I'm not looking to fade on a nightly basis, they do rank 14th or lower in baseball in terms of HR, OBP, OPS, and SLG. I trust Detmers to put up a clean opening frame.
The Blue Jays will go with righty Dylan Cease, who has been absolutely incredible to begin the season. Cease has yet to record a decision this year, but he's currently rocking a 1.74 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, with an xERA of 2.84 and xBA of .202 that suggest that's not a fluke. Like Detmers, Cease is one of the best strikeout artists in the game, with a chase rate in the 70th percentile and a whiff rate and strikeout rate that both grade out above the 95th percentile. He's also been able to avoid hard contact with the best of them, ranking above the 85th percentile in terms of barrel rate, hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity, and his 77th percentile ground ball rate is excellent, as well. While the Angels offensive numbers have been pretty good this season, the fact that they rank dead-last in the MLB in terms of strikeouts is really concerning against a pitcher like Cease. I also love that he'll have the splits advantage against the righty sluggers like Trout, Soler, and Adell that the Angels like to bat at the top of their order. I like Cease to keep it rolling with a clean first inning tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-138 at FanDuel)
