Today's slate of games has brought me to fade a trio of bottom-10 offenses in the Tigers, Guardians and Brewers for my NRFI plays.
Coincidentally, three of the four teams have an NRFI success rate of at least 50%, with the Brewers and Tigers both ranking in the top 10 in that category. Another factor I weigh pretty heavily in my picks is hitting splits against the opposing pitcher, and again, three out of the four teams will be in their worse hitting splits in these matchups (the Brewers hit righties and lefties equally poorly as the fourth team).
Notably, we will be backing two pitchers who have recently returned from injury, Brandon Woodruff and Tarik Skubal. Still, their performances since their return are uplifting, and their career track records make me comfortable backing them no matter the situation.
Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI: 38-34, -2.91 Units | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs. Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams gets the start for the Guardians in this matchup. He is a 24-year-old righty having a solid debut MLB season despite what his 1-3 record might indicate. Williams has a 2.80 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP, and his xERA of 3.89 (59th percentile) and other underlying metrics suggest that his numbers haven't been flukey. He's been able to avoid hard contact, missing barrels in the 87th percentile, leading to his hard hit% and average exit velocity ranking in the 74th and 81st percentiles, respectively. He's also getting batters to flat-out swing and miss, evident by his 72nd percentile K%, 69th percentile whiff% and 54th percentile chase rate.
He's in great form right now as well, as his xwOBA has been trending sharply in the positive direction over his last 50 batters faced. He has a very favorable matchup in this game, as the Tigers rank bottom-five offensively in 2B, HR, AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. They also hit righties slightly worse than they hit lefties, so Williams will be in an advantageous split, as well.
Tarik Skubal's starts keep lining up on days that I write these articles, and I can't keep myself from going back to him. Skubal has been pretty solid since his return from injury, pitching scoreless outings in four out of his seven games started. His xERA of 2.70 is the best of his entire career and nearly a full 1.5 runs lower than his actual ERA, so he's been pretty unlucky in his 2023 starts (an error costing us the NRFI in their last Friday's game, for example). His walk rate is below 5%, which is exceptional, and his performances dating all the way back to his previous 250 batters have seen his xwOBA well better than that of league average. He's posting career bests in barrel%, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, launch angle, xBA, xSLG and K%.
I also love his matchup against this Guardians team. The Guardians rank bottom-10 in OBP, bottom-five in OPS and SLG, while also ranking dead last in baseball in HR by a full 24 HR. Trading switch-hitting slugger Josh Bell at the trade deadline isn't exactly going to help those numbers, either. The Guardians are also significantly worse against LHP than RHP, so Skubal will also have that advantage. Progressive Field ranks bottom-10 in overall offensive park factors and HR rate since 2021 via Statcast.
Bet: NRFI (-120)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs. Andrew Heaney
Lefty veteran Andrew Heaney has been a stabilizing force in a Rangers rotation that has had to deal with a multitude of injuries. He’ll take the mound tonight. Heaney's numbers suggest that he's likely having his best season since 2018, currently posting a 9-6 record with a 4.17 ERA. Heaney's hard hit% is above that of league average, but what he's been really good at this year has been getting batters to swing and miss. His whiff% and K% both fall just shy of the 60th percentile, while his chase rate ranks among the top 1/3 of all pitchers. Heaney's recent performances illustrate that he's been in good form recently, as his xwOBA has trended from below league average to now above league average.
The Brewers are a team that has been carried by their pitching staff all year, as their offense ranks bottom-10 in 2B, HR, AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. They also hit nearly identically against both RHP and LHP, which will confer no advantage against the lefty Heaney in this one.
Brandon Woodruff gets the rock for the Brewers, making his fifth start of the year and his third overall since returning from injury on Aug. 6. What we've seen out of Woodruff since returning from injury has been pretty good, allowing 4 ER over 11.1 IP (no run allowed in the first inning of either). Though it's been a limited sample size, his 1.99 ERA and 0.84 WHIP are immaculate. Woodruff’s strikeout rate is over 30%, and his walk rate is the best of his entire career at 4.7%. His xERA of 2.72 would also be the best of his career. It tells us that his numbers have been pretty representative of the pitcher that he is, which has been flat-out dominant.
Though the Rangers have a pretty formidable offense, they're actually noticeably weaker against RHP, which will work in Woodruff's favor. I trust what I've seen out of Woodruff since his return, and if he continues to be even close to the pitcher that we've seen out of his previous five seasons, I'll trust him to succeed against any lineup.
Bet: NRFI (-115)
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