I don't exactly love fading offenses like the Blue Jays, Rays and Astros, but I do like the fact that the Blue Jays and Rays both have an NRFI success rate of at least 55%, ranking in the top-5, and the Astros are not too far behind at a 50% hit rate. I also like the fact that each pitcher will have a splits advantage, whether it be right-handed or left-handed, and that both of these games will be played in ballparks that rank below league average in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors since 2021, via Statcast. There is a third game on this slate that I really wanted to target with the Marlins hosting the Brewers, but the Marlins currently have not named a starting pitcher. That will likely be an add for me after the SP is announced, as Corbin Burnes will start for Milwaukee and I'd be comfortable backing just about any pitcher that the Marlins send out.
2023 NRFI (51-46, -3.60 Units)
Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays - No Run 1st Inning (-120 @ DraftKings, BetMGM, Bet365)
Chris Bassitt gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight in this divisional matchup, at the tail end of what had been yet another really productive season from the veteran righty. His 3.78 ERA is largely a result of his ability to avoid hard contact, as his hard hit% and average exit velo both rank in the top quartile of pitchers. His walk rate of 7.5% ranks in the 63rd percentile, and his expected numbers like xBA and xERA as well as his GB% are all around league average. While the Rays have one of the better offenses in the league, they do get on base and hit for average at a slightly lower rate against RHP, and Bassitt has been really good his first time through the batting order, holding batters to a 0.221 AVG.
Since returning from injury, Tyler Glasnow has seamlessly replaced Shane McClanahan at the top of the Rays rotation. His stuff is arguably the best that you'll see from a starting pitcher, which is reflected by his 76th percentile chase rate, 94th percentile whiff% and 96th percentile K%. When batters do make contact with Glanow's pitches, they tend to hit the ball on the ground, as his 50% GB rate ranks above the 80th percentile of all pitchers. His xERA and xBA rank in the 62nd and 72nd percentiles, respectively, telling us that his numbers have been no fluke. If I could build my ideal pitcher in a lab, it would probably be Tyler Glasnow, and I absolutely love his matchup in this spot against a righty-heavy Blue Jays batting order that will be in their demonstrably inferior batting splits against Glasnow.
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals - No Run 1st Inning (-115 @ BetMGM, Bet365)
If you've never heard the name Cole Ragans before, maybe it's time you start paying attention. Ragans, a LHP in his second season in the majors, hasn't gotten much recognition this year because he's playing for a horrible team, but he's quietly been putting up numbers on Statcast that would put him in the upper echelon of all pitchers. Let's dive in - his xERA of 2.98 and xBA of 0.205 are absolutely miniscule, both ranking above the 89th percentile. His whiff% and K% both rank above the 83rd percentile. His 4.9% barrel rate ranks in the 89th percentile, and when batters do make contact they're either not hitting it hard (top 33% of all pitchers in average exit velo and hard hit%), or they're hitting it into the ground (66th percentile GB%). Similar to the Rays, the Astros are another really good offense that will be challenged by their hitting splits, as the Astros hitters have hit righties much better than they have hit lefties this year.
Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez has fallen off a little bit since the beginning of the season where he was potentially the Cy Young favorite, but I still have no problem backing him here in this spot. Framber's 3.20 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are really solid, and relies heavily on his ability to generate ground balls. He's never been one to miss a ton of bats and generate huge strikeout numbers, but his 55.2% ground ball rate is actually lower than it has been in years previous, but still good enough to put him in the 91st percentile. He's also not walking a ton of batters, as his walk rate falls just shy of the 90th percentile. The Royals are a bottom-10 offense in terms of HR, OBP, OPS and SLG, and they will also be in their inferior splits against the lefty Valdez here, so I don't foresee him having any issues tonight.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts