I've scaled down to two plays for this Tuesday because there weren't many NRFI spots that I felt confident in. The two picks and four pitchers that I decided on all have one thing in common, though: The fact that all of these pitchers excel at avoiding hard contact, which is crucial in these wagers where one swing of the bat can kill it.
They all also do an above-average job at getting batters to swing and miss at pitches, including pitches outside of the strike zone, which is another factor that I weigh heavily in these analyses. Finally, I'm featuring two of the most successful NRFI teams in the league, the Twins (55%) and Brewers (52%), which rank fourth and seventh in that category, respectively.
Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI (44-38, -1.67 Units)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams vs. Pablo Lopez
Pablo Lopez continues to be a great acquisition for this Twins team that has primarily relied on their dominant starting pitching to carry them for most of this season. Lopez is currently rocking the lowest xERA of his career at 3.14 (good for the 88th percentile). The fact that it's more than half a run lower than his actual ERA suggests that he's even due for some positive regression. Lopez does not get hit hard, evident by his 62nd percentile hard hit%, 70th percentile barrel%, 75th percentile average exit velo and 78th percentile xSLG. He generates tons of swing and misses, ranking 76th percentile in whiff%, 87th percentile in K% and 93rd percentile chase rate. He also has the second-lowest walk rate of his career at 6.1%, which is good for the 83rd percentile.
He'll be up against an underwhelming Guardians offense that ranks bottom-10 in OBP, SLG and OPS and ranks dead last in HR by an almost impressive margin. I expect Lopez to roll through this lineup all night, including the first inning.
Rookie RHP Gavin Williams will toe the slab for the Guardians tonight. His 1-5 record is certainly not indicative of the pitcher that he's been this season. Williams has also done a nice job of avoiding hard contact, ranking 77th percentile in average exit velo and 86th percentile in barrel%. He also has swing-and-miss stuff, ranking in the 66th percentile in K% and 73rd percentile in whiff%. Those factors should play very well against this "all-or-nothing" Twins lineup that does hit a lot of home runs but ranks in the bottom 10 of baseball in hitting for average. If Williams continues to generate soft contact and get the Twins sluggers to swing and miss, I like his chances in this spot.
Bet: NRFI (-120 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Pitching Matchup: Corbin Burnes vs. Justin Steele
Justin Steele has burst onto the scene as one of the premier pitchers in all of baseball this year, pitching to the tune of a 14-3 record, 2.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His xERA of 3.48 still ranks in the top 25% of all pitchers, suggesting his numbers are no fluke. His hard hit% and xSLG both put him in the 74th percentile, while his average exit velo and barrel% both rank in the 80th percentile, so he's not getting hit hard at all. Though his strikeout numbers aren't elite, he's still able to get batters to swing at a lot of pitches outside of the strike zone, ranking in the 83rd percentile in chase rate. He's walking just over 5% of the batters he faces (90th percentile), and he’ll benefit from pitching against one of the weaker lineups in the National League. The Brewers are a team their pitching staff has essentially carried, as they rank 20th or worse in 2B, HR, AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG.
While Steele is just now making a name for himself, his counterpart Corbin Burnes has been one of the best in the game for the past four seasons and shows no signs of slowing down. Burnes' xERA of 3.38 is lower than his actual ERA and ranks in the 82nd percentile. Plus, his 1.08 WHIP is phenomenal. Like all of the pitchers featured in this article, Burnes avoids hard contact with the best of them, ranking above the 84th percentile in average exit velo, hard hit%, xSLG and hard hit%. His K%, whiff% and chase rate all rank in at least the 63rd percentile, so he's able to get batters to whiff at his pitches, as well. I'd trust Burnes in any matchup, but I especially like that he'll be dealing to a Cubs lineup that he has a ton of familiarity with that slugs a bit worse against RHP this season.
Bet: NRFI (-120 via BEt365)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts