Baseball season is in full swing and there is no better way to gamble than on NRFI bets. For those who may be unaware, NRFI stands for No Run First Inning. It's a popular betting market where gamblers wager on whether the first inning of an MLB game will end with zero runs scored by either team. Pretty simple. These bets depend heavily on the starting pitchers and factors like pitcher stats, team tendencies, ballpark conditions, and weather. Some teams consistently score early, while others struggle. NRFI bets are the best because they're quick – sometimes you'll know the outcome within minutes. Second, some pitchers excel in the first inning due to their repertoire or mental approach. NRFI betting capitalizes on this. Lastly, if you've done your research, NRFI bets can provide an edge over other markets and I'm here to help provide that edge. As always, shop around for the best odds and be on the lookout for any lineup changes or injury news. Let's get to it.
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Thursday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Last Time: 0-2 | MLB Season: 0-2
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles (-122) at Boston Red Sox (+102)
Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez vs. Garrett Whitlock
Both pitchers have started the year hot, with Garrett Whitlock singing to the song of one earned run across 9.1 innings pitched and Grayson Rodriguez sitting at a 2.19 ERA after his pair of starts. Each starter seems difficult to figure out and that makes me like the chances of zero runs being scored early. Neither of the projected tops of lineups have faced Rodriguez or Whitlock much at all, with all three projected Boston batters facing Gray-Rod for the first time.
If either team scores early here, I would expect it to be the Orioles. But this season, they have only averaged .40 runs a game in the first inning and are batting a collective .189 (7-for-37) with a very low .574 OPS. The Red Sox batters are in a similar boat with a .179 batting average (7-for-39) and a .555 OPS in the first frame. The odds aren't great here, but this would be my safest NRFI bet of the slate today, so I wouldn't mind throwing a few units on it.
Play: No Runs First Inning (-120)
Oakland Athletics (+154) at Texas Rangers (-185)
Starting Pitchers: JP Sears vs. Jon Gray
On the surface, it doesn't look good for either pitcher to limit runs early on. JP Sears has an ERA of 8.68 and Jon Gray has a 6.14. Yes, it is quite early in the year, but those numbers are still scary. I still see the best play as NRFI, simply for pure value.
Gray may not be the best pitcher in the world, but against this A's lineup, I'm not too worried. The projected top three batters in Oakland's lineup have gone a combined 1-for-10 lifetime against Gray, and that one hit was a single. The team as a whole has struggled against Gray, so even if Oakland threatens early on, I'm not too sure they can capitalize. It has been a tough go for Sears early on this year, allowing nine runs in nearly as many innings, but what he has done is start strong. The southpaw has retired all six batters faced in the first inning so far in 2024 and the Rangers’ expected leadoff man, Marcus Semien, is a career 3-for-14 batter against Sears. This is a semi-dangerous play, but one I'm willing to back.
Play: No Runs First Inning (+110)
Milwaukee Brewers (-125) at Cincinnati Reds (+105)
Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Nick Martinez
Finally, we have an NL Central battle for the ages! Not really, but it is one where I expect a lot of scoring. Nick Martinez only made nine starts last year in 63 appearances. In 2023, Martinez allowed a .288 (68-for-236) batting average in his first inning pitched. Not great. William Contreras is 2-for-4 against him lifetime and Christian Yelich has faced him over 10 times. This is an experienced start to the Brewers lineup against a Reds pitcher who has been struggling to find it.
If Milwaukee doesn't score in their first inning, I can't say I'm exactly stoked about the Reds’ chances, but there's always a shot. The saving grace is that Jonathan India has double-digit meetings against Peralta and the rest of the top of the lineup has at least faced him before. If you want to just go Brewers first-inning ML, I'm all for it. Either way, I expect runs to be scored early on here.
Play: Yes Runs First Inning (-105)
