The 2026 MLB season is now in full swing! Thursday brings along a smaller slate of games, but we still have some No Runs First Inning (NRFI) angles to lock in. Let's dive into our top MLB NRFI picks for Thursday, April 16th.
If you're unfamiliar with NRFI bets, here's a quick explanation. We're simply betting that neither team will score a run in the first inning. That means we have a 0-0 scoreline after both teams bat in the opening frame. Conversely, you can bet on the YRFI, or Yes Runs First Inning. Without further ado, let's jump into the best NRFI picks for Opening Day.
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Thursday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz vs. Parker Messick
Let's lead off today's NRFI picks with an American League matchup between the Orioles and Guardians. We have Shane Baz on the mound for Baltimore and Parker Messick starting for Cleveland. Together, these young pitchers can combine for a scoreless first inning.
Shane Baz boasts a strong NRFI track record. Last year, he tossed a scoreless opening frame in 26-of-31 starts (83.9%) with a 26.8% strikeout rate in the first inning. The right-hander also owns a career 80.7% NRFI rate as a starter. In three outings for the Orioles so far this season, Baz has a 3-0 NRFI mark.
Today, he'll face a Cleveland offense that's hitting just .197 in the first inning (23rd in MLB). The Guardians are also batting .167 against right-handed pitching in the first frame. It's a good spot for Baz, even away from home. He posted a stellar 13-2 NRFI record on the road last year for Tampa.
On the other side, Parker Messick brings in plenty of upside for Cleveland. The lefty has been stellar early on this season, with a 0.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his first three starts. We got a glimpse of this last year when Messick had a 2.72 ERA across seven starts after getting called up in August.
Messick has tossed a scoreless first inning in all three outings this year. Last season, he had just a 3-4 NRFI record. However, with how well he's pitching right now, Messick can get through the opening frame unscathed. The Orioles have scored only three runs in the first inning all season, ranking 27th in the Majors. They're also batting just .175 in the frame (24th in MLB).
Finally, if you need more convincing, check out these trends. Baltimore has a 14-4 NRFI record this year, for a league-high 77.8% rate. Meanwhile, Cleveland has a 12-7 NRFI record (63.2%). Combined, that's a 70% rate for a scoreless first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Walker Buehler
Our second NRFI pick today features a pair of veteran pitchers in an interleague matchup. Luis Castillo starts for the Mariners, while Walker Buehler toes the rubber for the Padres. Both arms can anchor a scoreless first inning to cash the NRFI.
Castillo has had a shaky start to the season, with a 6.92 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over his first three outings. He also just got rocked for seven runs on 10 hits against the Astros in his latest start. Even so, all we need is the Mariners' right-hander to get through the first inning today.
On that note, Castillo brings in some excellent NRFI trends. He tossed a scoreless first inning in 27-of-32 starts last year (84.4%), with a 2.81 ERA and .211 batting average allowed in the frame. He also owns a career 74.4% NRFI rate. Castillo has gone 2-1 to the NRFI so far this season.
Today's matchup is certainly a favorable one, at least in the opening frame. The Padres are among the league's worst offenses in the first inning, batting .150 (26th in MLB) with a .205 wOBA (27th). They've also only scored two runs in the first inning all season, which ranks 28th in the Majors. Meanwhile, Castillo went 13-2 to the NRFI on the road last year.
On the other side, Buehler has also been iffy to begin the season. The San Diego righty has a 4.97 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across his first three starts. Again, though, we only care about him getting past the first inning without allowing a run.
Buehler has tossed a scoreless opening frame in all three starts thus far. It's a small sample size, yes, but it's also encouraging. The right-hander owns a 75.8% NRFI rate in his career. That number rises to 77.5% when pitching at home. Today, he can take advantage of a Seattle lineup that has a .206 batting average in the first inning (22nd in MLB) with a 30.6% strikeout rate in the frame as well (28th).
Pick: NRFI (-122)
