Happy Memorial Day. Hopefully, like me, you are able to stay home for the day to enjoy a nearly full slate of MLB action, which spans nearly every time slot from 1:30 PM - 9:30 PM ET. There are a lot of really interesting series kicking off today with plenty of divisional rivalries. Enjoy the day off, get on the grill if the weather is nice and let's sit back and cash a couple of MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Shane McClanahan vs. Kyle Bradish
While Orioles righty Kyle Bradish hasn't been quite as good as he was in their previous three seasons, he's certainly still been effective, and his numbers suggest he's actually been a little unlucky.
For starters, his xERA is lower than his actual ERA at a respectable 4.07. He grades out right around league average in terms of chase rate and hard-hit rate, and in the 60th percentile or better in whiff rate, strikeout rate, average exit velocity and xBA. He also has an extremely high groundball rate of 51.4%, which grades out in the 84th percentile.
While the Rays’ offense isn't one I look to fade regularly, it lacks pop to some extent. While they rank in the top five in both batting average and on-base percentage (OBP), they're middle of the pack in slugging rate, they walk at a bottom-10 rate and they have the third-fewest home runs in all of baseball.
I've backed Bradish in the NRFI market successfully a couple of times this season, and I like him to deliver another clean opening frame this afternoon.
Meanwhile, Rays starter Shane McClanahan is looking to get revenge on an Orioles squad that just touched him up for four runs in his worst outing of the season. Prior to that game, McClanahan was absolutely rolling and had tossed 21.2 consecutive innings without giving up an earned run.
McClanahan’s stuff is among the best in the game, ranking above the 90th percentile in terms of breaking ball run value, offspeed run value and overall pitching run value.
The Rays hurler is incredibly well-rounded, ranking around league average in terms of average exit velocity, chase rate and groundball rate, with a whiff rate, strikeout rate, xERA and xBA that all qualify among the top third of all pitchers.
McClanahan draws an Orioles offense that has unquestionably been a bottom-half offense this season. Baltimore ranks in the bottom 10 in both batting average and OBP, and strikes out at the third-highest rate in all of baseball, which is undoubtedly not what you want against a pitcher of McClanahan's caliber. I think he gets back on track today, starting with a spotless first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-130 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo vs. Nolan McLean
Mets righty Nolan McLean seems to have already assimilated well into the Majors, currently rocking a 3.57 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP, and his numbers suggest he's been even better than that. His xERA is over half a run lower than his actual ERA at 2.90, good for the 82nd percentile, and his xBA of 0.214 puts him in the 79th percentile.
McLean doesn't get hit all that hard, ranking in the 64th and 78th percentiles in barrel rate and average exit velocity, respectively, and his strikeout rate is among the best in the game in the 90th percentile. His offspeed run value grades out just below the 70th percentile, and he has a 95th percentile fastball run value for an overall pitching run value in the 84th percentile.
McLean matches up against a Reds offense that offers some power but severely lacks overall consistency. Cincinnati ranks 24th or worse in terms of batting average, OBP and strikeouts, which is pretty concerning against one of the better strikeout-generating pitchers. I'm not threatened by the Reds’ offense at the moment, and I like McLean to exit the first inning unscathed.
Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo is making just his fourth start of the season due to a blister, which kept him out for the early going. He's still searching for it, as his numbers this season certainly aren't indicative of the pitcher he is capable of.
Lodolo is coming off the best season of his young career, where he posted a 3.33 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. His underlying numbers backed up his performance, as he graded out around league average in terms of barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Lodolo graded out above the 60th percentile in terms of xBA, average exit velocity, whiff rate, strikeout rate and groundball rate, while grading out above the 90th percentile in terms of walk rate and chase rate.
It can definitely be argued that the Mets’ offense he'll be up against today is the worst in all of baseball. The Mets rank in the bottom five in batting average and have absolutely no pop, ranking in the bottom 10 in home runs and dead last in slugging rate and OPS. They don't consistently get on base either, ranking in the bottom 10 in walks drawn and dead last in OBP.
Lodolo will regain his form over the course of the season, and I think this is a great opportunity to start against a hapless Mets offense.
Pick: NRFI (-134 at BetRivers)
