I've got two MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks for Monday’s slate of games, which includes the conclusion to a few weekend wrap-around series. The first game features two southpaws, one of whom might hold the title as the best pitcher in the game, with the other one vying for the best young pitcher in the game.
The second game features less excitement, with division foes sending out middle-of-the-rotation righties, who have each pitched well against their opponent already this season. The first game requires laying a fair bit of juice, but the second game can be found much closer to even money.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Payton Tolle vs. Tarik Skubal
Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal is a great anchor for any NRFI play because you can almost automatically chalk up a zero on the other team's scoreboard in the first inning.
Skubal has been as good as advertised this season, ranking in the 96th percentile in overall pitching value with a breaking ball run value in the 89th percentile and an offspeed run value in the 98th percentile. He grades out above the 70th percentile in xERA, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate and ground ball rate. He ranks above the 90th percentile in chase rate and has a minuscule walk rate of just 3.6%.
That's really not good news for a Red Sox lineup that has been nothing short of abysmal in the early going, ranking in the bottom 10 in batting average, on-base percentage (OBP) and walks, while ranking in the bottom three in slugging rate, OPS and home runs. Skubal should dominate the Red Sox tonight, getting off to a good start in the first inning.
The Red Sox will counter with a southpaw of their own in top prospect Payton Tolle, who is slated to make his third start of the season. Tolle's 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP already look pretty good on paper, but his underlying metrics tell us that he's been even better than that.
Tolle's swing-and-miss stuff has been elite, grading out in the 93rd percentile in whiff rate and in the 97th percentile in strikeout rate. He's also been able to miss barrels, grading out just shy of the 80th percentile in barrel rate. Put all those together, and you get a pitcher with a 98th percentile xERA of just 1.81 and a 99th percentile xBA of 0.140 - not too bad for a rookie.
Add in the fact that Tolle has done that against the Yankees and Blue Jays, and his numbers are even more impressive. The Tigers’ lineup he'll see tonight is certainly decent, ranking around league average or slightly above league average in most categories, but I love the fact that he will neutralize key left-handed bats like Riley Greene and Kevin McGonigle, and will likely keep Kerry Carpenter out of the lineup entirely.
Add in the fact that we've got mid-teens miles per hour (MPH) crosswind blowing from right to left, and this play becomes one of my favorite NRFI picks of the entire season.
Pick: NRFI (-157 @ BetRivers)
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs. Michael Wacha
The 14-year veteran Michael Wacha takes the mound for Kansas City tonight, still finding ways to get hitters out as one of the softest tossers in the league. You might not realize it, but Wacha has maintained a season-long ERA of under 4.00 for four consecutive seasons, and he's well on his way to making that five with a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to begin his 2026 campaign.
Wacha's Baseball Savant page certainly isn't going to blow you away, as he grades out right around league average in most analytical categories, but the run value on his pitches does indicate he’s been effective. His overall pitching run value grades out in the top quartile of all pitchers, with a fastball run value in the 72nd percentile and an offspeed run value in the 80th percentile, which is really impressive considering he does not throw very hard at all.
The Guardians’ offense has been middling, at best, in the early part of the season, and Wacha dominated them about a month ago in his second start of the season, allowing just one earned run through seven innings. I like Wacha to keep it rolling tonight, starting with a clean opening frame.
Tanner Bibee will get the start for the Guardians, currently rocking a 4.08 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, which are somewhat still inflated from an eight-earned run performance against a red-hot Braves offense in mid-March. Bibee's underlying numbers are actually extremely similar to Wacha's, as he grades out right around league average in most analytical categories.
Similar to Wacha, though, the run value on Bibee’s pitches indicates he's been relatively effective. Bibee's breaking ball run value has him in the 83rd percentile of all pitchers with an offspeed run value in the 94th percentile. Compare that to his third percentile fastball run value, and perhaps Bibee would be better off throwing more offspeed pitches.
Kansas City's offense grades out essentially equal to the Guardians, middling in most offensive categories, and Bibee also posted a nice start against them in early March, allowing just one earned run in 4.2 innings. One notable caveat is that the weather is not particularly pitcher-friendly in Kansas City this evening, on a warm night with the wind blowing straight out ~10 MPH to center field.
Still, Kauffman Stadium does grade out below league average in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors with the fourth-lowest home run factor since 2024, so I'll stick with my guns and play the NRFI in this one.
Pick: NRFI (-105 @ BetMGM)
