The halfway point in the season brings another tough Monday NRFI slate, as the board is littered with starting pitchers that I want absolutely no part of backing in any capacity. Looking through the projected matchups for every game, each game features a starter that I would consider to be considerably league average, expect for one game that I settled on as my pick for this evening. I'm looking at the Rangers vs the Guardians, which features two really solid southpaw starters taking on below league average offenses in a pitcher friendly ballpark. I got my two plays to the window last week, let's stay hot as we draw near to the All-Star break.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Parker Messick will get the rock for the Guardians tonight, looking to build on his already impressive first full season in the big leagues. Messick has one of the best fastballs in the entire league, which grades out in the 99th percentile in terms of run value and has contributed in large part to his 98th percentile overall pitching run value. His 2.67 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are both excellent, and are supported by an array of underlying metrics which grade out above league average. He ranks above the 60th percentile in terms of walk rate, average exit velocity, and xBA; he grades out above the 70th percentile in terms of xERA, chase rate, barrel rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit rate. Additionally, he grades out above the 80th percentile in terms of strikeout rate. Simply put, the league hasn't seemed to figure him out yet and there aren't really any holes in his current pitching profile. Messick has a fine matchup tonight as well, taking on a Rangers offense that ranks middling at best in nearly all offensive categories. They rank right around league average in terms of AVG and OBP, but rank below league average in terms of SLG, OPS, HR, 2B, and total runs scored. I like Messick to go deep into this game, and I certainly think he posts a clean opening frame.
The Rangers will counter with a southpaw of their own with the veteran Tyler Alexander, who will be operating out of the Opener role tonight as he will be making just his third start of the season. The good news for this play is that in each of those starts, he only pitched the first inning and did not surrender a run in either game. Though he is not necessarily a hard thrower, he has performed quite well overall this season with the underlying metrics to back him up. His 2.62 ERA is supported by an xERA of 3.02 which grades out in the 85th percentile. His xBA of 0.226 grades out in the 71st percentile and is in large part a product of his ability to generate soft contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both grade out above the 80th percentile, and his 96th percentile barrel rate is among the best in the game. Another feather in his cap is his 95th percentile ground ball rate, which means that even when he does get squared up he's able to keep the ball out of the air more often than not. Alexander has a very advantageous matchup tonight against a sputtering Guardians offense, as the Guards rank bottom-6 in HRs, bottom-3 in runs scored, AVG and OPS, and dead-last in SLG. Add in the fact that Progressive Field ranks 21st in both overall offensive ballpark factor and HR factor since 2024, and this game has all the makings of a NRFI.
Pick: NRFI (-125 at BetRivers)
