It's probably safe to say that we've officially entered the dog days of summer for the MLB season, especially considering the heat wave that just impacted much of the country on America's 250th birthday. We've got a week of baseball left before the All-Star break, and nearly half the league is off today. Still, we have two MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks to bring to the plate tonight.
We'll start with a battle for the top of the American League East, featuring one of the best pitchers in baseball on a team that is struggling mightily offensively. And we'll wrap things up on the West Coast, with two pitchers who have been on the receiving end of some poor luck in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Cam Schlittler vs. Griffin Jax
I got a best bet to the window with Tampa Bay starter Griffin Jax last week, and I'm narrowing that to just the first inning of tonight's divisional showdown against the Yankees. Jax has been really good for the Rays this season, who have seemingly successfully converted yet another reliever to starting pitcher.
Breaking balls and off-speed pitches from Jax grade out extremely favorably, ranking in the top quartile of run value in both categories. His chase rate and whiff rate both grade above the 80th percentile, and his 45.6% groundball rate puts him in the 68th percentile.
Jax made two relief appearances against the Yankees this season and did not concede a hit in either. That was against a much stronger version of the Yankees as well, who are in complete disarray at the moment. New York has lost nine of their last 10 games, largely because they have scored more than four runs only once during that stretch.
I do not see that turning around prior to the All-Star break, and I like Jax to roll through the first inning tonight.
The Yankees will counter with Cam Schlittler, who remains the narrow American League Cy Young favorite even after being touched up by the Tigers in his last outing, in which he allowed six earned runs and four homers. I believe that was just a blip on the radar, as Schlittler has some of the best underlying numbers in the entire league.
Schlittler’s fastball is dominant, ranking in the 99th percentile in terms of run value, and his swing-and-miss numbers are elite. He grades out above the 90th percentile in both chase rate and strikeout rate, and his whiff rate has him among the top third of all pitchers.
Schlittler’s xBA and xERA both rank above the 70th and 80th percentiles, respectively, and his average exit velocity grades out above the 60th percentile. While the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball at getting on base, Schlittler counters that with a 95th percentile walk rate of just 5.1%.
The Rays also do not pose a huge power threat outside of Junior Caminero, as they have still slugged the fourth-fewest home runs in the league despite his recent hot streak of 10 homers in as many games. A dominant Schlittler outing is essentially the only chance the Yankees have to win a game right now, and I like him to deliver tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-150 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman vs. Landen Roupp
Giants righty Landen Roupp has probably been their best starting pitcher this season in a rotation that features perennial Cy Young candidate Logan Webb. Though Roupp is sitting at a 4.55 ERA, his xERA of 3.43 is over a full run lower, putting him in the 70th percentile.
Roupp’s xBA of 0.229 is pretty good as well, grading out among the top third of all pitchers. His breaking balls grade out in the 90th percentile, helping him generate soft contact at a high rate, with grades above the 88th percentile in average exit velocity, groundball rate and barrel rate. His groundball rate is also just shy of 50%, putting him in the 85th percentile among all pitchers.
Roupp will be up against a vastly underperforming Blue Jays offense with a hampered Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who ranks in the bottom seven in on-base percentage (OBP), OPS, slugging rate and home runs. Roupp's season-long numbers will more closely reflect his expected numbers by the time the season comes to a close, starting with a quality start this evening.
Kevin Gausman gets the start for Toronto this evening as another pitcher who has underperformed relative to his expected numbers. Gausman's 3.77 xERA is nearly half a run lower than his actual ERA of 4.19, and his fastball ranks among the very best in the game, with a run value in the 98th percentile.
Gausman’s strikeout numbers aren't quite there compared to what he’s put up in previous years, but he's still striking out nearly a quarter of the batters he faces, with a whiff rate just shy of the 70th percentile and a chase rate just shy of the 90th percentile.
The Giants have a really odd offensive composition, hitting for a high average and slugging rate while ranking in the bottom six in OBP, with the 19th-most home runs and a middling OPS.
Add in the fact that Oracle Park ranks 26th in overall offensive ballpark factors and second-worst in terms of home run factor since 2026, and I think Gausman takes advantage with a clean opening frame tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-140 @ BetMGM)
