There are 15 MLB contests tonight, with all 30 teams in play. There are ample games to pick from for the best MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks or MLB yes runs first inning (YRFI) picks. Two NRFI wagers are the most appealing picks from tonight’s vast slate.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Colorado Rockies (+260) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-320) | O/U 8.0 (+100/-122)
Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen vs. Paul Skenes
Michael Lorenzen doesn’t have a particularly impressive pitching profile. According to FanGraphs, the veteran righty has a putrid 6.92 ERA, 5.78 xERA, 4.49 xFIP and 4.56 SIERA in nine appearances (eight starts) this season. Since last season, Lorenzen has had a 5.33 ERA in 98 innings on the road, but his 4.07 xFIP suggests he hasn’t been quite that bad.
The top of Pittsburgh’s projected lineup has some potency, too. Nevertheless, Lorenzen has gotten off to clean starts to games this year. He’s thrown a scoreless first inning in six of eight starts, including all four starts on the road.
Lorenzen is the more likely hurler to cough up a run in the first inning tonight, and his first-inning excellence is grounds for backing the NRFI when factoring in the other side of this pitching matchup.
Paul Skenes has thrown a scoreless first inning in five of his eight starts this season, which, obviously, isn’t perfect. However, the rest of Skenes’s profile is superb. The 23-year-old righty has a 2.36 ERA, 1.95 xERA, 3.01 xFIP and 2.84 SIERA in eight starts this season.
Skenes has twirled a blistering 1.84 ERA and 3.02 xFIP in 112.2 innings at home since last season. He’s also a monster out of the gates. Skenes has a 1.31 ERA and 2.47 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter in his career.
Colorado’s projected leadoff hitter, Edouard Julien, has had an 86 wRC+ against righties since 2024. Their projected No. 2 hitter, Mickey Moniak, has had a 112 wRC+. Hunter Goodman, the projected No. 3 hitter, has had a 102 wRC+. Skenes should shut the Rockies down in the first without giving up a run.
Pick: NRFI (-130)
Chicago Cubs (+106) at Atlanta Braves (-124) | O/U 9.0 (-112/-108)
Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea vs. Grant Holmes
Colin Rea has a mixed runout in the first inning. Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson have hammered righties, with a 136 wRC+ and a 128 wRC+, respectively, against righties since 2024 - or since debuting in the Majors last year in Baldwin’s case.
Baldwin should sit atop Atlanta’s lineup, and Olson will likely bat third. However, Atlanta’s other three hitters projected in the top five have had a sub-100 wRC+ against righties since 2024.
Atlanta’s lineup has firepower, and they should eventually get the better of Rea, but they shouldn’t be counted on to do so in the first inning. Rea has thrown a scoreless first inning in four of his five starts. The righty has also made three relief appearances.
Rea has been brilliant in his first trip through the order as a starter this year, sporting a 0.00 ERA and 3.88 xFIP. The only run he’s allowed was unearned. Rea can handle his end of an NRFI.
Grant Holmes doesn’t have impressive overall numbers this year. Yet, he has a track record of success at home. In 82.2 innings at home since last season, Holmes has spun a 3.38 ERA and 3.55 xFIP.
Holmes has held the opposition scoreless in the first inning in six of his seven starts this season. In addition, Holmes has a 2.45 ERA and 3.34 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter in his career.
Rea and Holmes have had enough success early in games to warrant selecting an NRFI in this game.
Pick: NRFI (-104)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.