The 2026 MLB season rolls on. Thursday brings a smaller slate of games, with the action starting early and a slew of afternoon matchups. Let's dive into some MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks to lock in before the games get going.
If you’re unfamiliar with NRFI bets, here’s a quick explanation: We’re simply betting that neither team will score a run in the first inning. That means we have a 0-0 scoreline after both teams bat in the opening frame. Conversely, you can bet on the YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning). Without further ado, let’s jump into the best MLB NRFI picks for Thursday, May 7th.
Thursday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Liberatore vs. Michael King
Let's lead off today's NRFI picks with a matchup between St. Louis and San Diego. We have Matthew Liberatore on the mound for the Cardinals, while Michael King starts for the Padres. Both pitchers should combine for a scoreless first inning on Thursday night.
Michael King boasts a perfect 7-0 NRFI record so far this season. He's also yet to allow a hit in the first inning, while posting a 33.3% strikeout rate. It's an impressive start for a guy who's pitching well overall this year. The Padres' right-hander owns a 2.95 ERA across his seven outings.
King's first-inning success has been a trend in recent seasons. He posted an 11-4 NRFI record last year (73%) and a 24-6 NRFI mark in the 2024 campaign (80%). He's also tossed a scoreless opening frame in 22-of-27 home starts since joining the Padres, for an 81% rate. King will face a dangerous offense here, but the Cardinals are batting just .213 on the road in the first inning this season (21st in MLB).
On the other side, Matthew Liberatore is more of a wild card for the NRFI equation tonight. The St. Louis left-hander has just a 4-3 NRFI record with a lofty 5.14 first-inning ERA so far this season. His career 70% NRFI rate as a starter is also slightly below average.
However, Liberatore showed some upside in this area last season. He threw a scoreless opening frame in 22-of-29 starts (76%). Plus, the Cards' southpaw gets a favorable matchup tonight. The Padres have a league-worst .211 wOBA and .137 batting average in the first inning, while ranking dead last in first-inning runs scored (7).
Pick: NRFI (-118)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs. Zac Gallen
Our second NRFI pick today features the Diamondbacks hosting the Pirates in an afternoon tilt. We have a pair of familiar right-handers starting in this one. It'll be Mitch Keller for Pittsburgh, while Zac Gallen gets the ball for Arizona. Let's break down why there's value in the NRFI.
Gallen's NRFI track record lately is admittedly unimpressive. He has 4-3 NRFI mark and a rough 6.43 first-inning ERA so far this season. The Diamondbacks' veteran also posted just a 66% NRFI rate last year with a 4.91 ERA in the opening frame. That's not exactly trustworthy.
However, Gallen has been much more effective at home. He's tossed a scoreless first inning in 14-of-20 home starts over the past two seasons combined (70%). The Arizona righty also boasts a career 83% NRFI rate and 2.64 first-inning ERA when pitching at home.
Gallen will also be looking to bounce back after giving up three runs in the opening frame of his latest start. He should take care of business at home, where he has a 1.23 ERA across three starts so far this year. The Pirates’ offense, meanwhile, is batting just .217 with a 38.8% strikeout rate in the first inning over the past two weeks.
On the other side, Mitch Keller can hold serve for Pittsburgh. He boasts a stellar 6-1 NRFI record over his first seven starts this season. The righty posted a solid 75% NRFI rate last year as well.
More notably, he'll face an Arizona offense that's struggled in the opening frame lately. The D-backs have just a .269 in the first inning over the past two weeks, which ranks 26th in the Majors. They also have a league-worst 42.9% strikeout rate in the frame during this stretch.
Pick: NRFI (-104)
