I have just one MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) play on this Tuesday's slate of games that I feel really confident in.
We have some really underwhelming pitching matchups tonight, with plenty of candidates to fade due to looming negative regression. The weather has also started to heat up around the league, which is obviously beneficial to the offensive side of the game.
The game I selected features two southpaws who are relatively overlooked around the league, facing off against two offenses that I would both rank in the bottom 10 of the MLB. The market seems to agree with me, as this game features the lowest total on the Tuesday slate. As I have just one pick today, I'll be playing a full unit as opposed to my normal half unit, with an extended breakdown below.
I have no reservations about laying the somewhat steeper price, and I'd play this all the way up to -160.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2024 NRFI (18-10; +2.39 Units)
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi gets the start for Toronto this evening amid what has unquestionably been the best start to a season in his Big League career. His 2.60 ERA is nearly mirrored by his 2.74 xERA, which currently sits in the 88th percentile. His 1.10 WHIP is backed by his 0.231 xBA, and he walks under 5% of the batters he faces, which ranks in the mid-80th percentile. Though he doesn't necessarily generate a ton of whiffs or chases outside of the strike zone, he's still racking up K's at a 26.3% clip, which puts him in the 73rd percentile overall. His ground ball rate and barrel% also come in above league average, which are nice metrics to have when it comes to the NRFI market.
Kikuchi will be up against the worst offense in the MLB tonight, as the putrid White Sox rank dead-last in AVG, OBP, OPS, SLG and HRs. The White Sox are also somehow worse against LHP than they are against RHP, which is almost impressive considering just how bad their numbers are against righties. Kikuchi has been awesome this year, and I see no reason to believe why he won't have a clean first inning and dominate this White Sox lineup.
On the other side, lefty Garrett Crochet will take the mound for the White Sox tonight. Chicago decided to turn Crochet into a starter this season, and the early returns have been phenomenal, as he has been one of the only bright spots on the entire roster. Crochet will likely lack the counting stats to garner enough Cy Young votes to win the award this season, but his underlying metrics suggest that he has legitimately been one of the top pitchers in the game this season.
Crochet's 4.18 ERA is nowhere near indicative of how good he has been, as his xERA of 2.20 is nearly two full runs lower and sits at the top of the 90th percentile. His 1.01 WHIP is also probably elevated, considering his 94th percentile xBA of 0.181 and 86th percentile walk rate of just 5.8%. His swing-and-miss stuff is dynamite, with a chase rate that ranks in the top third of baseball, a whiff% that falls just shy of the 80th percentile and a K% that puts him in the 95th percentile.
Should hitters actually make contact, they're unable to do much with it. Crochet's hard-hit rate ranks in the 65th percentile, with a sub-5% barrel% that sits in the 79th percentile and an average exit velocity that ranks in the 84th percentile. The closest comparison I could find to Crochet's dominance across the board analytically is the current AL Cy Young favorite, Tarik Skubal, as even pitchers like Tyler Glasnow don't boast the overall consistency of Crochet.
I've picked on the Blue Jays offense a couple of times this year and have no hesitation to do it again. Their on-the-field performance simply does not match up with their on-paper expectations. Toronto ranks in the bottom half of the league in OBP, and they come in 20th or worse in AVG, OPS, SLG and HRs. Taking it one step further, their numbers are only marginally better against LHP, which is a bit concerning, considering all of their better and more powerful hitters are righties. Crochet has been dazzling this year, and I think he keeps it rolling against Toronto tonight.
Bet: NRFI (-145)
