The Mets yesterday managed to muster zero runs and made Michael Kopech look like a Cy Young candidate. On the other hand, our Braves under 4.5 runs played out perfectly. We have another slate where we will look to extract some value and end this losing streak. Let’s dive in!!!
MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions
Record
Parlay: 5-18 (-9.25 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-11 (-3.75 units)
Overall: -13.00 units
Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.
Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.
Glossary
K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.
For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.
Friday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers
Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 174 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+168) @ Los Angeles Angels (-215) First 5 innings
Johan Oviedo (PIT)
- 75th in FIP
- 100th in ERA
- 115th in K-BB%
- 114th in LOB%
- 43rd in GB%
- 37th in HR/FB%
- 107.1 innings pitched
Shohei Ohtani (LAA)
- 64th in FIP
- 47th in ERA
- 20th in K-BB%
- 35th in LOB%
- 56th in GB%
- 138th in HR/FB%
- 105.1 innings pitched
Ohtani is having a slightly above-average season and will get a favorable matchup today. The Pirates rank 28th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Ohtani should be able to navigate this lineup with little resistance. Oviedo is a ground ball pitcher who also limits home runs. Nothing about his advanced statistic profile jumps off the page and he will get a difficult matchup today. The Angels rank 5th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.
Bet: Angels (-215) First 5 innings
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays un 4.5 runs (-120) First 5 innings
Kyle Bradish (BAL)
- 29th in FIP
- 19th in ERA
- 60th in K-BB%
- 30th in LOB%
- 61st in GB%
- 39th in HR/FB%
- 91.1 innings pitched
Zach Eflin (TBR)
- 11th in FIP
- 49th in ERA
- 16th in K-BB%
- 88th in LOB%
- 12th in GB%
- 79th in HR/FB%
- 105.1 innings pitched
We have two top-tier starting pitchers facing off in this matchup. Both limit home runs and are above average in K-BB%. They will face off against two middling offenses. The Orioles rank 18th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month and the Rays rank 13th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Both pitchers should be able to limit these lineups through 5 innings.
Bet: under 4.5 runs (-120) First 5 innings
The Bets
ML Parlay
- Angels (-215) First 5 innings
- Orioles/Rays under 4.5 runs (-120) First 5 innings
Parlay odds: +168 for 2 units
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!