Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/7)

We're in for another jam-packed sports Saturday, including a loaded 16-game MLB slate. The bonus game comes courtesy of a doubleheader in the Steel City, where the Nationals and Pirates make up a rainout from last night. Let's waste no more time and dive into my three favorite bets for Saturday's action on the diamond.

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Saturday's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Phillies (-250) vs. Miami Marlins (+205) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-120)

The Phillies decimated the Marlins 16-2 last night, securing their sixth straight win in the process. The divisional foes are back at it this afternoon. We have a pitching matchup between Aaron Nola and Darren McCaughan. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, FL.

Philadelphia's once again heating up, and I'm going to ride the hot hand in this one - give me the Phillies -1.5. Over the last 14 days, the Phillies have been the league's best offense, ranking first in both wRC+ (144) and wOBA (.378), while sitting second in ISO (.218) and BABIP (.350). This will be a favorable matchup against Miami's bullpen, which ranks 22nd in ERA (4.18) and 19th in WHIP (1.28). I'm expecting another offensive onslaught from the Fightin' Phils in this one.

It shouldn't take much offense for the Phillies to cover this run line since Aaron Nola is toeing the rubber. The right-hander is putting together another big season, entering the weekend at 12-6 with a 3.29 ERA (14th) and 1.15 WHIP (22nd). Nola has logged two straight quality starts, posting a 1.38 ERA over the 13.0-inning sample size. Finally, the veteran hurler has great head-to-head numbers against Miami, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .200/.228/.345. Ultimately, these teams are trending in opposite directions. I expect the Phillies to cruise to another easy win in the 305.

Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-130)

Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) vs. Houston Astros (-165) | O/U 8.0 (-120/+100)

The Astros smacked the Diamondbacks 8-0 in last night's series opener, issuing Arizona its second straight defeat. Game two tonight features a pitching matchup between Eduardo Rodriguez and Yusei Kikuchi. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX.

These are two of the better offenses in the league, so I'm going to lock in the over while it's sitting at a flat 8.0 runs. Arizona's scoring 5.39 runs per game this year, which tops the league. Houston's 12th in the category, averaging 4.57 runs per contest in 2024. In terms of recent form, both units are in the top half of MLB over the last two weeks. Over the last 14 days, Arizona is eighth in wRC+ (115) and fourth in wOBA (.337), while Houston is 12th (106) and 14th (.313), respectively.

Furthermore, I'm not sure this pitching matchup warrants such a low total. Rodriguez hasn't been sharp since returning to the rotation, logging a 5.33 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over five starts (25.1 innings). Houston has owned the southpaw in the past, as their current roster is slashing .322/.391/.609 against him. On the flip side, Kikuchi has been objectively good since coming over from Toronto, registering a 2.57 ERA in six starts (35.0 innings). However, this is a tough matchup against an Arizona offense that's fantastic against lefties, ranking fourth in wRC+ (114) and second in wOBA (.336) this year. Let's sit back and enjoy these two dynamic offenses - give me the over.

Bet: Over 8.0 Runs (-120)

San Francisco Giants (+130) vs. San Diego Padres (-155) | O/U 7.0 (+100/-120)

We have a marquee pitching matchup on the slate later tonight as Logan Webb and the Giants take on Dylan Cease and the Padres. San Diego won last night's series opener 5-1, marking their fourth victory in the last five games. This National League West clash is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA.

While this is a heavyweight pitching matchup, I think there's a pretty good case to be made for the over. This number of 7.0 is about the lowest you'll find in a regular season game, and we're getting a +100 payout with the over. For starters, neither of these hurlers has been sharp recently. In his last three starts (19.0 innings), Webb owns a 5.68 ERA. As for Cease, he brings in an underwhelming 4.78 ERA in his last five starts (26.1 innings).

Additionally, the head-to-head data doesn't point to the under being the right side. San Francisco's current roster is slashing a modest .262/.380/.500 against Cease over 42 at-bats. On the other hand, San Diego is slashing .247/.289/.324 in 170 at-bats against Webb. I can understand why the total's 7.0 due to the name recognition of the pitchers, but I'm not buying it. I think the numbers suggest we can reach at least eight runs in this divisional tilt.

Bet: Over 7.0 Runs (+100)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: