Let’s discuss some of today’s baseball games and share with you our MLB best bets for Thursday, May 15th.
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Thursday's MLB Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Astros (+102) at Texas Rangers (-122) | O/U 7.0 (-122/+102)
As long as Jacob deGrom is healthy and on the mound, he is one of the best pitchers in the game. He’s having an incredible 2025 and has been even better recently with a 1.91 ERA and .206 opponents' batting average in his last five starts.
When you dig deeper, his dominance shows, as he’s above the 80th percentile in several categories, including expected ERA (82nd), whiff rate (91st) and chase rate (83rd). He still has one of the toughest sliders in the league, with opposing hitters batting .171 against the pitch, and the +7 run value off the pitch is the highest in the league.
Houston's lineup has regressed significantly this season, ranking 26th in chase rate (29.3%) and 29th in hard-hit rate (37.5%).
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (-122)
Minnesota Twins (+114) at Baltimore Orioles (-122) | O/U 9.0 (-108/-112)
The Twins are the hottest team in baseball, having won 10 straight games. This has helped them get over .500, but they are still 5.5 games behind first place. The regular series between the Twins and the Orioles ends on Thursday, with Minnesota having the chance to win all six games.
Chris Paddack's numbers are starting to approach respectable after he ballooned to a 14.73 ERA in his first two starts. That has shrunk to 4.76 as he's posted a 2.51 ERA in his last six starts. He's gaining better control of secondary pitches, specifically the change-up, as that's his putaway pitch. He kept that pitch elevated in the first two starts, but it's staying low, and hitters can't adjust.
The Orioles do not possess the same power as last season, and recently have been an average offense. The Twins could stay hot.
Pick: Twins Moneyline (+114)
Tampa Bay Rays (+140) at Toronto Blue Jays (-166) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-118)
After a brutal start to the season, Zack Littell has drastically improved, going from losing five straight starts to the Rays winning his next three. The difference is he's starting to trust his other pitches, and he's stopped going heavily with the slider. The consistent changing of speeds and spins has helped keep hitters off balance. Littell also has confidence in his control by allowing one or fewer walks in six of his nine starts.
Littell’s chase rate is in the 85th percentile, and he faces a Blue Jays lineup ranked 24th in that category (29.3%). The Rays could pull off the upset.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (+140)
