I'll be bringing my best bets to the plate every Tuesday throughout the MLB season, likely with a focus on F5 and full game moneyline bets, as those are the markets that I'm most inclined to play. This Tuesday offers a nearly full slate of MLB action, with all but two teams getting after it. I've picked out my favorite two bets of the evening, where we'll start out in Cincinnati with Bubba Chandler taking the mound for the Pirates as one of the most exciting young pitching prospects in the game. Then, we'll go to Seattle in a battle between aces and AL pennant contenders, with Logan Gilbert of the Mariners squaring off against Max Fried and the Yankees. Let's get these to the window and start the season off on a high note!
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bubba Chandler gets the start as the Pirates #2 prospect and #11 prospect in all of baseball on Tuesday evening in Cincinnati. Chandler racked up a 3-1 record down the stretch in 2025 in 7 appearances (4 starts), and while his 4.02 ERA doesn't necessarily blow you away, his numbers are significantly inflated by one horrible start where he surrendered 9 ER to the Brewers. The fact that he was able to maintain a sub-1.00 WHIP of 0.93 in spite of that start is actually really impressive. His underlying metrics back his performances up as well with an xERA of 3.66, and he graded out significantly above league average in terms of chase rate (30.2%), whiff rate (30.3%), strikeout rate (25%), and ground ball rate (46.5%). He's also one of the hardest throwing pitchers in the game with an average fastball sitting at 98.9 MPH and a miniscule walk rate of just 3.2%. He might not be Paul Skenes, but he's certainly got the stuff to form a really formidable 1-2 punch at the top of this Pirates rotation for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, the Reds will be sending out LHP Brandon Williamson, who has not appeared in an MLB game since 2024, where he made only 4 appearances. While his 3.77 ERA season is better than Chandler's on paper, the underlying metrics tell a much different story. Williamson outperformed his xERA of 4.74 by nearly a full run, and he graded out below league average in nearly every analytical category. Most notably, his chase rate, whiff rate, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage and ground ball rate all graded out in the bottom quartile of all pitchers. His only full season of work in 2023 essentially mirrors his limited sample size last season, where he sported a 4.46 ERA and struggles in all of the aforementioned analytical categories.
I'll give the nod to the Reds offensively, but that's not saying much as the Pirates were among the worst offenses in baseball in 2025 and the Reds finished in the bottom half of the league in terms of AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, R, SB, and Ks. The Pirates also made a few notable acquisitions over the offseason in Brandon Lowe and Marcell Ozuna in hopes of boosting their offensive production in 2026. I also favor the Reds bullpen to that of the Pirates, especially considering the recent departures of David Bednar and Colin Holderman, which is why I'm taking the latter half of the game out of the equation with this F5 play. The Pirates have the decisive starting pitching advantage in this game that features two sub-par offenses, and I like them to be leading this one after 5 innings.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates F5 Moneyline (-120)
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday night features a really good pitching matchup in Seattle, with Logan Gilbert of the Mariners squaring off against Max Fried of the Yankees. Gilbert is one of the best in the game in my opinion, with 4 straight seasons of sub-3.73 ERA. He's been especially excellent over the previous 2 seasons, with an xERA of 3.06 and 3.09 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Gilbert's underlying metrics are sparkling, grading out in the top quartile of all pitchers in terms of xERA, xBA, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate. He's one of the pitchers that has a reverse splits advantage as well, so not only does he dominate right-handed batters, but he actually has better numbers against lefties to counter the left-handed bats like Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, and Cody Bellinger that the Yankees will likely deploy.
It’s pretty tough to nitpick Max Fried, who has been the absolute model of top of the rotation consistency for his entire career, though I will point out that he has outperformed his xERA in each of his previous 6 seasons and 7 of his 8 seasons in the MLB. Specifically regarding his Opening Night start in San Francisco, the underlying metrics had him at an xERA of 3.78 (and oddly enough, a lower fWAR than his counterpart Logan Webb), despite the fact that he did not surrender a run. He tends to make his hay on soft balls in contact rather than missing a ton of bats, which increases the variance for the opposing offense. The offense that he'll be up against obviously packs a ton of power, specifically right-handed power, between Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, which works to their advantage against the lefty Fried.
I prefer the full game moneyline in this one as opposed to the F5, because I give the Mariners bullpen the advantage over the Yankees. Seattle's bullpen ranked 9th in the bigs in ERA last season, headlined by their fantastic closer Andre Munoz, who racked up the 3rd most saves in the MLB with a sparkling 1.73 ERA. The Mariners pen also allowed the 5th fewest walks of any bullpen, which is a big factor against this Yankees lineup that walked more than any other team in 2025. While I give the Yankees the nod offensively, I'll take Gilbert over Fried on their best days, and I think he hands the ball over to their stellar bullpen with a lead. Give me the Mariners to get it done in front of their home crowd in a matchup that could decide the AL pennant in the postseason.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+102)
