Today’s Major League Baseball slate features eight games. The medium-sized slate has a couple of bets that are a cut above the rest. Check out the top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Chicago Cubs (-112) at San Diego Padres (-108) | O/U 8.0 (-105/-115)
Randy Vasquez has spun a blistering 1.88 ERA through five starts spanning 28.2 innings this year. However, per FanGraphs, he has a 4.32 xERA, 3.55 xFIP, and 3.44 SIERA as well. His xFIP and SIERA are rock-solid, and his xERA isn’t dreadful, but it’s unimpressive.
Vasquez’s pitch modeling also doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll continue to pitch like an ace. The 27-year-old righty has 97 stuff+, 101 location+ and 94 pitching+. The projection models aren’t buying what Vasquez is selling, either.
Steamer projects him for a 4.68 ERA for the rest of the season, ZiPS projects a 4.43 ERA, ATC projects a 4.81 ERA, the BAT projects a 4.90 ERA, and OOPSY projects a 4.44 ERA. The other shoe will likely drop sooner rather than later.
The Cubs are equipped to begin Vasquez’s painful regression. Chicago is tied for sixth in wRC+ (112) against righties this year. In addition, seven of their projected starters tonight have tallied at least a 102 wRC+ against righties since 2024, with five ripping off at least a 121 wRC+.
FantasyPros projects Vasquez to yield 2.65 earned runs in just 5.24 innings tonight. San Diego’s relievers have a 3.80 ERA, 2.95 xERA, and 3.57 xFIP this season. The Cubs should be able to scratch across at least four runs against Vasquez and the Friars’ bullpen tonight.
Pick: Cubs Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-135)
Miami Marlins (+244) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-308) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
The Dodgers are massive moneyline favorites tonight. The line is far too chalky to make it an appealing wager, but their run line is intriguing.
Los Angeles is MLB’s best offense against righties, tallying an MLB-high 129 wRC+ against them this year. Their projected starting lineup is also stacked with hitters who annihilate righties. Thus, they’ve been great against righties this year, and the larger body of work is also outstanding.
Chris Paddack is unlikely to keep LA’s offense quiet. He has a putrid 6.38 ERA in five appearances (four starts), and chalking up his ugly ERA to bad luck based on his ERA estimators would be unwise. Paddack has made a nasty habit of drastically underperforming his ERA estimators throughout his career, as evidenced by his 4.71 ERA, 4.42 xERA, 4.10 xFIP, and 4.08 SIERA in 605.2 innings in his career. Miami has also lost all four of Paddack’s starts by at least two runs.
The Marlins have a potent offense, as seen in one notable split for tonight. Miami is fifth in wRC+ (113) against righties in 2026. Yet, the Marlins are a much less impressive 15th in wRC+ (95) on the road this year.
The Dodgers also have a huge advantage on the hill. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has tallied the following stats in five starts spanning 32.2 innings this year.
- 2.48 ERA
- 3.64 xERA
- 3.66 xFIP
- 3.58 SIERA
- 0.89 WHIP
- 4.1 BB%
- 22.8 K%
- 13.2 SwStr%
- 27.3 CSW%
- 100 stuff+
- 105 location+
- 106 pitching+
Yamamoto should keep Miami’s offense in check enough for the offense to carry the Dodgers to a victory by at least two runs tonight.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-136)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.