The totals didn't go so well for me last week, so I'm back to my bread and butter with a couple of Moneyline MLB picks as my favorite plays for Tuesday evening.
I'm looking at a couple of National League Central teams tonight, both of which figure to be vying for the division crown throughout the entirety of the regular season. Both teams have a decisive starting pitcher advantage with great offensive matchups, and I favor each team's bullpen, which is why I'm opting for the full-game Moneyline rather than a first five innings play.
Jump on these MLB picks quickly, as I do foresee both lines moving in the direction of the teams I'm betting on.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
The Diamondbacks are slated to send out Merrill Kelly to start this game. He has legitimately been among the worst pitchers in baseball through his initial two starts to the season. Kelly's only meaningful advanced metric that grades out above average is his whiff rate, while he grades out below the 22nd percentile in chase rate, strikeout rate and walk rate.
Even worse, Kelly grades out below the 10th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate and groundball rate, and he ranks in the first percentile of all pitchers in terms of xERA, xBA, fastball velocity and barrel rate. The fact that he walks so many batters is really troublesome against a Brewers lineup that draws the fourth-most walks and ranks in the top 10 in on-base percentage (OBP). The Brewers also hit righties better than lefties overall, and their OPS and slugging rate are both elevated at home.
The Brewers will counter with righty Chad Patrick, who has been extremely effective in his first five starts of the season. While his advanced analytics won't necessarily blow you away, he certainly grades out well above Kelly in every category, ranking around league average in most.
Patrick’s Statcast page shows that his overall pitching run value is in the 72nd percentile, and his fastball run value grades out very well (82nd percentile). Before his last start against the Tigers, he had only allowed two earned runs in his first four starts and was rocking a 0.95 ERA in April.
While the Diamondbacks do hit for average at a pretty high clip, they shockingly rank sixth-worst in OBP, which is likely because they draw the second-fewest walks in the league. They'll also be at a major splits disadvantage tonight, as their offensive numbers fall off a cliff when they are the road team and when they face right-handed pitching.
While the Brewers’ bullpen hasn't quite been the same caliber we've seen in previous seasons, they still have a decisive advantage over Arizona's. The Diamondbacks’ pen ranks in the bottom 10 in terms of ERA, home runs allowed and strikeouts.
I give the Brewers the decisive starting pitcher edge and a minor edge in the bullpen. Combining that with the offensive splits advantage they'll have and the fact that this game will be played in their home ballpark, I'll take the undervalued Brewers on the Moneyline as my first best bet.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-105 @ BetMGM)
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Walker Buehler gets the start for the Padres tonight. His best days are well behind him. Buehler hasn't finished the season with a sub-4.00 ERA in the last four years, and his current 5.75 ERA indicates he isn't going to get it done this year either. Looking under the hood, his 4.99 xERA grades out in the 28th percentile and indicates that his performance has pretty much lined up with his expectations.
Buehler is not missing bats. He grades out below league average in terms of both whiff rate and strikeout rate. Buehler has also been getting hit hard, evident by a 14th percentile xBA and 17th percentile average exit velocity. His 9.8% walk rate is also too high, grading out below league average.
None of that matches up well against a Cubs lineup that has been absolutely mashing this season, ranking in the top five in home runs, walks, batting average, slugging rate, OPS and OBP.
The Cubs will send out Edward Cabrera, who is one of the more talented right-handers in the game when he keeps the ball in the strike zone. While his 50th percentile walk rate of 9.2% certainly isn't going to blow you away, it's a pretty major improvement for Cabrera, considering he graded out below the 10th percentile every season from 2021 to 2024.
Statcast grades out Cabrera's fastball run value in the top quartile of all pitchers, and has him above the 80th percentile in terms of overall pitching value and offspeed run value. His chase rate also grades out very well, putting him in the 74th percentile.
The Padres’ offense he'll square up against has been middling at best, grading out 15th or worse in home runs, batting average, slugging rate, OPS and OBP. They also draw the 22nd-most walks in baseball, which could help Cabrera avoid a free pass or two.
These bullpens grade out nearly equally, but Mason Miller is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the Padres in that regard. If the Cubs have the lead going into the final innings of this one, they will likely avoid seeing Miller, tipping the balance to a decisive advantage for the Cubs’ bullpen.
The Cubs have also been the only team to put a blemish on Miller's season so far, plating two runs against him last night in a game where he questionably entered without a save situation in the ninth inning. The Cubs are currently riding their longest losing streak of the season, but I like them to break that this evening.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-118 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
