I've got two MLB picks this evening, backing electric second-year righties in Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski in different ways.
Both pitchers absolutely chuck the ball, grading out among the league's best fastballs, which each average over 98 miles per hour (MPH), and set up devastating offspeed pitches. If both keep doing their thing, I like these my picks to get home tonight.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies has to be one of the unluckiest pitchers in all of baseball this season. For starters, his xERA of 3.16 is nearly two full runs lower than his actual ERA, and has him among the top quartile of all pitchers. Luzardo’s offspeed stuff has been among the best in the game, ranking in the 89th percentile for breaking-ball run value and in the 94th percentile for offspeed run value.
The Phillies ace generates a ton of swing and misses, grading out in the 85th percentile in terms of strikeout rate and above the 90th percentile in both chase rate and whiff rate. He also doesn't get hit very hard at all, grading in the 71st percentile in barrel rate and in the 92nd percentile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Luzardo’s groundball rate exceeds 50% and puts him in the 83rd percentile, and his 6.1% walk rate is extremely low, putting him in the 84th percentile. Simply put, it's hard to figure out why the numbers look so poor on paper.
A lot of the same can be said about Reds second-year right-hander Chase Burns, who has stepped right up to assume the role of ace with Hunter Greene sidelined to start the season. Burns has a terrific fastball, averaging 98 MPH with an overall run value in the 95th percentile.
What's unfair is that his breaking pitches are apparently even better, grading out as good as it gets in the 100th percentile. Burns also generates a ton of swing and misses, grading out above the 70th percentile in chase rate and strikeout rate, and holding a whiff rate good for the 93rd percentile.
While Burns gets hit slightly harder than Luzardo, all of his metrics in those categories grade out right around league average. The fact that his xERA and xBA grade out in the 82nd and 88th percentiles, respectively, tells me he's avoiding enough hard contact.
The Reds’ offense has been keeping itself alive with the longball, tied for fourth in the Majors in home runs, but they do not consistently put the ball in play. Cincinnati ranks 23rd in on-base percentage (OBP), 28th in batting average and has the fifth-most strikeouts in the league. Combined with Luzardo's ability to miss bats and avoid hard contact, I don't see the Reds’ offense having much success the first one or two times through the order this evening.
The Phillies’ offense actually has a shockingly similar profile - tied for the sixth-most home runs in baseball but ranks 22nd or worse in OPS, OBP and batting average. About the only thing I don't love about this game is the weather, which is projected to be in the low-90's with a slight wind blowing out.
I trust these two pitchers to go past the fifth inning and keep this game low scoring against two offenses that have some glaring holes in their profiles.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-121 @ BetRivers)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Brewers second-year phenom Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball on Tuesday evening, looking to build off of his incredible start to the season, boasting a 2.12 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Similar to Chase Burns, Misiorowski has one of the best fastballs in the game, averaging a shade under 100 at 99.6 MPH and grading out in the 89th percentile in terms of run value.
That sets up his wipeout slider, which also sits in the 90s and grades out at the very top of the league in breaking-ball run value, in the 100th percentile. His 2.49 xERA and 0.189 xBA both grade out in the 92nd percentile, indicating he has essentially pitched to his expected performance.
Misiorowski’s whiff rate and strikeout rate are silly, grading out in the 98th and 99th percentiles, respectively. He also grades out in the top quartile of pitchers in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity.
Misiorowski’s counterpart this evening will be Cubs right-hander Ben Brown, making just his third start of the season. Brown's numbers themselves are certainly nothing to scoff at, as he holds an incredible 1.60 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and all the underlying numbers to back it up, but it's the length that I'm concerned about.
Nearly all of Brown's appearances this year have been two-inning outings, with four innings in both of his starts representing his longest outings. That's a stark comparison to Misiorowski, who has pitched at least five innings in each of his nine starts this season.
It's also why I'm choosing to go with the full game Moneyline rather than a first five innings bet. The Brewers’ bullpen advantage is heavily weighted even further. Milwaukee ranks sixth with a bullpen ERA nearly a full half run better than the Cubs at 3.28. They should have fewer outs to record in this matchup, while the Cubs will be losing one of their best bullpen options because he will be starting this game.
Offensively, I give the edge to the Cubs, though it's really not as big an edge as you might imagine. Milwaukee continues to exceed offensive expectations, ranking in the top 10 in batting average and ranking in the top four in OBP, walks and strikeouts. They can string together hits and go from station to station as good as anyone in the league, especially if you give them free passes.
I give the Brewers the decisive edge in terms of both starting pitcher and bullpen, and the offensive advantage that I give the Cubs simply isn't enough to overcome those factors. I like Misiorowski to keep rolling tonight, and I'm taking the Brewers on the Moneyline.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-115 @ Bet365)
