I had some fun writing this MLB picks column for tonight's slate of games, covering several teams that don't often frequent my articles, including first-time appearances for the Rockies and Twins.
My plays tonight also feature a red-hot White Sox squad that entered Monday as winners of five straight and an Angels team that offers a lot of offensive power but not much else. Can the White Sox notch another win, and how do we bet on a game that might feature the worst all-around pitching matchup we will see this season?
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
If you haven't been paying attention, White Sox righty Davis Martin has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and certainly deserves more love in the American League Cy Young market.
Martin's stuff has been nasty, grading out in the 81st percentile in fastball run value, the 93rd percentile in breaking ball run value and the 97th percentile in both offspeed run value and overall pitching value. As such, his swing-and-miss stuff has been prolific, with a 73rd percentile whiff rate, an 80th percentile strikeout rate and a chase rate sitting in the 92nd percentile.
Davis’ 2.00 ERA and 0.99 WHIP are sterling, and although his xERA is slightly higher at 3.36, it still grades out in the 70th percentile. Martin also tossed a gem in his last outing, which came against these Twins, allowing just two hits and one earned run while striking out five over a strong six-inning performance.
Davis’ counterpart this evening will be Connor Prielipp of the Twins, a rookie southpaw who has had a rough go of it in his debut season. Prielipp holds a 5.13 ERA with a bloated WHIP of 1.35, which is largely a result of his 10.3% walk rate. Prielipp's overall pitching run value, fastball run value and offspeed run value all grade out in the bottom quartile of all pitchers.
Prielipp doesn't miss any bats, evident by his 33rd percentile whiff rate, and he has been hit pretty hard this year with a 36th percentile average exit velocity and a 17th percentile barrel rate. Prielipp is also fresh off his worst start of the season, which came against these White Sox, where he surrendered six earned runs in just 4.1 innings while walking three and allowing eight hits.
The White Sox’s year-round numbers obviously come with a caveat due to the recent injury to Munetaka Murakami, but they currently rank in the top 10 in on-base percentage (OBP), slugging rate, OPS and home runs, which is leaps and bounds better than anyone could have predicted coming into this season.
Meanwhile, the Twins rank 14th or worse in home runs, walks, strikeouts, batting average, OBP, OPS and slugging rate. Even without the services of Murakami, I'm still giving the offensive advantage to the much-improved White Sox over a Twins offense that has really cooled off after a frisky start to the season.
While the Sox don't necessarily have a lights-out bullpen, they still have better season-long numbers than the Twins. Minnesota's bullpen simply has not been able to keep runners off the base paths, illustrated by the league's third-highest WHIP and sixth-highest ERA of any bullpen unit.
The White Sox’s bullpen, on the other hand, has some swing-and-miss potential and boasts the sixth-most strikeouts of any bullpen in baseball. I give the White Sox a decided starting-pitcher advantage, a slight offensive advantage even without Murakami and a slight bullpen advantage.
The White Sox recently took three out of four against this same Twins squad just a week ago, and the Twins lost five straight before Monday night. Put all that together, and I'm backing the White Sox on the Moneyline this evening.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-120)
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
The once highly-regarded prospect, Grayson Rodriguez, was shipped off to the Angels for Taylor Ward in the offseason and will make his fourth start for the Halos tonight. Don't let his 2-1 record surprise you - Rodriguez has been knocked around in his three starts to the tune of a sky-high 7.53 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
While he doesn't technically have enough of a sample size to qualify for percentile rankings on Baseball Savant, what Rodriguez has displayed this season has been incredibly concerning. He does not have a single pitch that would grade out above league average, and he would grade out in the bottom quartile of pitchers in all of the following categories:
- xERA
- xBA
- average exit velocity
- chase rate
- whiff rate
- walk rate
- ground ball rate
Rodriguez would also come in below league average in terms of both strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. Simply put, there's really not a single redeeming quality about his pitching profile at the moment.
Much of the same can be said for Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano, except for the fact that he does have enough of a sample size to qualify for Baseball Savant rankings. Sugano flat-out has one of the worst Baseball Savant pages I've seen from any pitcher this entire season, absurdly ranking in the first percentile with a ridiculous xERA of 7.68, an xBA of 0.319 and a 16% barrel rate.
Sugano jumps all the way up to the second percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate, and he ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in chase rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His 38th percentile groundball rate of 40.2% is also extremely concerning, considering he does not miss bats and gets hit very hard.
When it comes to bullpens, we're looking at two of the worst in the Majors. The Angels and the Rockies have the second- and third-highest bullpen ERAs, respectively, with the Angels holding the second-highest WHIP and the Rockies owning the fifth-highest mark.
The Angels are the only big-league squad with single-digit saves on the season, somehow still stuck at six as the calendar flips to June. The Angels’ bullpen has allowed the third-most walks of any bullpen, and the Rockies’ bullpen has allowed the most hits and runs. From the starters to the bullpens, I don't trust anyone on either side to reliably get outs tonight.
Offensively, neither team is dreadful. The Angels rank in the top 10 in home runs on the season, with a league-average slugging rate and OPS. The Rockies enter this contest with the league's ninth-highest batting average, and rank somewhere between 18-22 when it comes to home runs, OBP, OPS, and slugging rate.
When it comes to the caliber of pitching we're going to see tonight, not dreadful should be good enough to clear this total. Add in the fact that Angel Stadium grades out eighth overall in home run factor since 2024, and I have no idea how this total is sitting in the single digits.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-120)
