We have another two-pack of MLB picks tonight, fresh off a 2-0 day in the MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) department last night.
The season is starting to turn into a grind as we're about to enter the dog days of summer on the diamond, but there's still plenty of value to be found. Let's stay hot and get another two tickets to the window this evening.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Guardians southpaw Parker Messick has been phenomenal in his first full season in the Majors, currently sporting a 2.70 ERA paired with a 1.10 WHIP. His fastball is legitimately among the game's best, grading out in the 99th percentile in terms of run value.
Messick ranks above league average in nearly every advanced metric, and he ranks among the top third of pitchers in all of the following categories:
- average exit velocity
- chase rate
- whiff rate
- strikeout rate
- barrel rate
- hard-hit rate
- xERA
White Sox starter Sean Burke has been decent this season, but not quite as good as Messick. His 4.01 xERA is elevated compared to his 3.89 ERA, suggesting he's been a little bit on the lucky side this season. His breaking and offspeed pitches both grade below league average in run value
Burke grades below league average in the following categories:
- average exit velocity
- whiff rate
- walk rate
- groundball rate
I see Burke as much closer to league-average, giving the Guardians a clear starting pitching advantage with Messick on the mound.
I would keep this as a first five innings play, except that the Guardians have a decisive advantage in the bullpen. The Guardians sit just outside of the top 10 in bullpen ERA, while the White Sox have the league's eighth-worst bullpen ERA. It can be argued that Cade Smith has been the best closer in baseball this season, rocking a 2.78 ERA and leading the league with 24 saves.
Offensively, I do give the White Sox an edge, especially compared to the Guardians’ lineup, which will be missing Jose Ramirez. The White Sox are tied with the Dodgers for the second-most home runs in baseball, though a significant portion of that damage was done by Munetaka Murakami, who will also miss this game.
I do not think the White Sox’s slight offensive advantage is enough to overcome the Guardians’ significant pitching advantage, from both starter and bullpen perspectives. I'll take the Guardians to win this game tonight.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-118)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
This play is mostly a fade of Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, who has been one of the worst expected pitchers in the entire league this season. Leahy holds an abysmal xERA of 6.10, which puts him in the fifth percentile and is a full run and a half higher than his actual ERA, suggesting there has been some luck involved despite how ineffective he has been.
The best stuff in Leahy’s arsenal has been his breaking pitches, which still only grade out in the 38th percentile in terms of run value. His whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate all grade out in the bottom third of all pitchers, and he has gotten absolutely rocked this season.
Leahy’s barrel rate sits in the eighth percentile, with a first percentile hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Put all that together, and you get a third percentile xBA of .296. Simply put, there is not a single redeeming quality when it comes to Leahy's pitching profile.
The Diamondbacks will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who is having a really stellar season with a 6-2 record and a 2.45 ERA. While he has certainly also been the benefactor of some good luck, his xERA is much closer to Leahy's actual ERA. His breaking stuff and offspeed have been tremendous, both grading out above the 80th percentile in terms of run value.
While he doesn't generate a ton of swing and misses, Rodriguez’s hard-hit rate is very respectable in the 70th percentile. While his overall profile suggests he hasn't been quite as good as his numbers suggest, I still give him a monstrous advantage over Leahy tonight.
Somewhat surprisingly, you have to give the offensive advantage to the Cardinals in this game. The Diamondbacks’ offense simply has not been able to put it together this season, and the Cardinals have been better on paper in nearly every single offensive category except for strikeouts, though the Cardinals rank just behind them in that category.
That offensive advantage is completely neutralized with Leahy on the bump. As opposed to the previous game, both of these teams have had pretty identical bullpen performances this season, and I don't see a decisive edge one way or another. Rodriguez outduels Leahy tonight, which is why I settled on a first five innings play instead of the full game.
Pick: Diamondbacks First Five Innings Moneyline (-104)
