Tonight, George Kirby gets an excellent matchup against the strikeout-prone Pirates. Then, I highlight a surprisingly favorable prop for Luinder Avila against the Pirates and explain why I love Luis Arraez against the Athletics. Here are the best MLB player props for Tuesday, June 23rd.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
George Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+116)
George Kirby isn't pitching well lately, but he is racking up strikeouts. He has 20 in his last three starts, with at least five in each of those appearances. That includes an outing in which he pitched only four innings.
Kirby has 79 strikeouts in 90 innings this season, and he has struck out 10 Pirates in 47 at-bats. While Kirby gives up enough runs to get pulled early, he's pitched at least five innings in all but one start this season. Simply put, the Mariners have been willing to keep him on the mound, even though he's allowed 23 earned runs in his last six starts.
Because Kirby usually pitches at least five innings, I love him against the second-most strikeout-prone team in the league. The Pirates have struck out 720 times this season, averaging 9.2 strikeouts per game. The only team with more strikeouts than them has played two more games.
Luinder Avila Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+138)
Luinder Avila is about to face the Rays, who are the least strikeout-prone team in the league. However, this total severely underestimates him in this matchup.
While Avila has just two appearances with more than three strikeouts, he's also only pitched more than three innings three times all season. However, those three performances have come in his last four outings, as he's moved into a legitimate starting role with the Royals.
Avila has struck out at least five batters in two of his last three games. He's never faced the Rays, so he doesn't have any sort of advantage over them. However, he has struck out 33 batters in 37.2 innings this season. That's a fairly strong ratio entering this difficult matchup.
The Rays are averaging just 7.3 strikeouts per game, but at this price, I'm willing to take a shot on the young pitcher. He's found his groove recently, even if he had a terrible start in mid-June. These odds for such a low strikeout number seriously undervalue the fact that the Rays don't strike out much, but they do strike out some.
Luis Arraez 2+ Hits (+160)
Luis Arraez has hit safely in 17 of his last 19 games. In eight of those contests, he recorded at least two hits. Though he's just two for his last 12, Arraez is still hitting .320 this season, and he enters a matchup tonight with a pitcher he has plenty of experience against.
Arraez has six hits against Aaron Civale in his career. While he's hitting just .231 off the Athletics pitcher, he's only struck out twice. That means he's making contact against Civale nearly every time he faces him.
Civale hasn't had a great season, allowing 74 hits in just 58.2 innings. He's allowed nine hits in each of his last two starts, despite pitching just seven innings combined in those two games.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.