MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/25)
We’re back with some more MLB action!
There might be a couple of areas where rain is a concern. But we’ll dodge those areas and select player props in games where weather shouldn’t be a factor.
Let’s start the weekend off with a bang!
Friday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
Bryce Harper is red hot right now. He’s hit a .303 ISO and wOBA of .422 against his last 76 righties. The left-hander has struck out 26.3% of the time in the previous 30 days, but he’s facing Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals, who rarely earns a high rate of strikeouts.
Mikolas has also allowed the last 53 lefties he’s faced to hit .216 ISO with a wOBA of .343. On the season, lefties have slugged a .162 ISO and wOBA of .327. This is a common theme for Mikolas.
Harper has slugged nearly 28% of line drives and fly balls and hit 64% of hard contact against lefties over the last month. Let’s take him to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s matchup against the Cardinals.
Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
Ryan Mountcastle has destroyed lefties over the last month. The right-handed slugger has hit a .333 ISO and wOBA of .506 in his last 37 at-bats against lefties.
Tonight, he’ll take on Kyle Freeland of the Rockies, who has allowed a .298 ISO and wOBA of .467 in his last 89 at-bats against right-handed hitters. Freeland has only struck out 16.9% of those righties faced and has allowed 30.4% line drive contact to those same righties in the last 30 days.
The Orioles’ offense has slumped a bit against lefties. However, Mountcastle is among the few players in the lineup producing against them, as 29% of his hits have been line drives and fly balls, with over 62% of those coming on hard contact.
Let’s give Mountcastle a chance tonight. He’s got a terrific matchup.
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Mitch Keller to the mound tonight. Keller has allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .409 to his last 58 lefties faced.
The right-hander started the season exceptionally well, but his second half has been an epic failure.
He’s allowed a .167 ISO and wOBA of .379 to his last 126 batters faced and has been even worse against lefties.
Bellinger is hitting .338 ISO with a wOBA of .463 in his last 71 at-bats against right-handed pitchers. Bellinger has also struck out less than 10% of the time in the previous 30 days, with 38% of his contact being line drives and fly balls. The left-handed slugger also has a 10% barrel percentage and a .333 BABIP with 49% hard contact against righties.
I’ll take my chances with Bellinger grabbing at least two bases. It’s unlikely that he’ll strike out, and he also has walked just 5.6% of the time against righties.
That means he’ll likely put the ball in play. When you do that, good things happen, especially with high hard contact rates and plenty of line drives.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Preseason Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Football Week 0 Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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