I'm bringing another trio of NRFI picks to the plate on this Friday evening, all of which combine to run the gamut of what I look for in these spots. The Yankees and Rays feature a matchup between two dominant starting pitchers and one really underperforming offense in the Yankees. The Cubs and Pirates will showcase two of the best pitchers in baseball at consistently generating soft contact, and then the Brewers and Padres will both be sending out former NL Cy Young candidates who have had unlucky seasons, whether due to injury (Woodruff) or just plain bad regression (Darvish). I was surprised to find that the prices on these plays weren't too expensive, and I feel like we have a great shot at getting all three plays to the window.
2023 NRFI (42-37, -2.31 Units)
Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees - No Runs 1st Inning (-130 @ DraftKings)
Zach Eflin has quietly been one of the more dominant pitchers across the MLB this season, holding a 3.58 ERA (3.00 xERA ranks in the 91st percentile) with a 1.03 WHIP. He's not getting hit hard at all, evident by his average exit velo (82nd percentile), hard hit% (76th percentile), xBA (77th percentile), and xSLG (68th percentile). He's walking only 3.5% of the batters he faces while striking out 25%, and his chase rate sits above the 90th percentile. He'll be dealing with a Yankees offense that can only be described as abysmal; the Yankees have hit the fewest doubles across baseball, ranked bottom five in BA and OBP, and ranked 20th or worse in OPS and SLG. They also hit righties significantly worse than they hit lefties, which is saying something for an offense that is already at the bottom of the barrel. I expect Eflin to roll in this start, beginning with a clean first inning.
One of the only bright spots for this Yankees squad in 2023 has been the dominance of Gerrit Cole, who could be on track for a Cy Young award. Cole's 3.03 ERA and 1.07 WHIP are fantastic, and his swing-and-miss stuff continues to be up there with the best of the game. Even after the banishment of "sticky stuff," Cole's spin rates and velocity have been at the top of the league, which has led him to a K% at the 72nd percentile and a chase rate at the 64th percentile. His xBA, xSLG, xERA, and whiff% are all comfortably above league average, and his walk rate sits at the 73rd percentile. The Rays offense isn't necessarily one that I love to fade on a consistent basis, but Cole has plenty of familiarity pitching against them in the division, and his stuff has debatably been the best across the entire league this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs - No Runs 1st Inning (-105 @ DraftKings)
Mitch Keller gets the start for the Pirates on the tail end of what has been a pretty successful season as the Pirates’ most consistent starting pitcher. Keller doesn't exactly have huge swing-and-miss potential, but his ability to generate soft contact has carried him. His xERA, xBA, and xSLG all rank above league average, and his average exit velo and hard hit% both rank in the 79th percentile or better. His K% and BB% both rank in the top one-third of the league as well, so he's able to generate strikeouts without allowing too many free passes. I trust Keller's ability to get weak contact and get through the 1st inning of this game unscathed.
If you take away the strikeout rate, Kyle Hendricks does everything that Keller does, except for a little bit better. Hendricks is probably #1 in the league at avoiding hard contact, as his hard hit% sits in the 91st percentile with his average exit velocity up in the 97th percentile. His walk rate sits in the 96th percentile at 4.2%, and although his strikeout numbers aren't there, his chase rate is among the best in the game in the 96th percentile. The Pirates will be in their inferior hitting splits against the RHP Hendricks, and they are already undoubtedly one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranking bottom-10 in HR, BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres - No Runs 1st Inning (-115 @ Caesars)
Brandon Woodruff gets the ball for the Brewers in what will be his 4th start since returning from injury. His first two starts back were really solid, going at least five innings and surrendering two earned runs or less in both. Even though he was touched up a bit in his most recent start against a really good Rangers lineup, he still held up his end of the bargain to help cash an NRFI play in that start. The 2023 sample size obviously isn't comprehensive due to his injury, but his season-long ERA of 2.89 (xERA of 2.77) and WHIP of 0.86 are both phenomenal. His walk rate is currently the lowest of his career at 5.7%, and his expected metrics are all either on par or better than the numbers that he's had in previous dominant seasons. I'm backing Woodruff again this week as he continues to return to form as one of the best starters in the NL.
His counterpart on the opposing side will be Yu Darvish, who might have a case for baseball's most unlucky pitcher in 2023. His 4.35 ERA is much higher than his xERA of 3.68, which ranks in the 70th percentile. His average exit velo, hard hit%, barrel%, xBA, and xSLG all rank above league average, with all of those metrics except for the hard hit% ranking in at least the 60th percentile. His strikeout rate and walk rate are also well better than most, both ranking above the 61st percentile. His xwOBA has consistently been above league average, dating back to his past 250 batters faced, and he'll be dealing to a Brewers lineup that ranks bottom-10 in 2B, HR, AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG. Milwaukee will also be in their inferior hitting splits against Darvish, which is another feather in his cap for this play.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Preseason Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Football Week 0 Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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