MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/25)

The Boston Red Sox bludgeoned the Houston Astros 17-1 yesterday for their biggest win since 2019. And the Astros missed a golden opportunity for a share of first place in the AL West (something they have not had all season) with the Texas Rangers dropping their seventh consecutive game. How are those two teams involved in our trio of best bets today?

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston Astros (-174) vs. Detroit Tigers (+146) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)

Houston Astros lefty Framber Valdez has tumbled down the Cy Young Award odds leaderboard, and it is even surprising to still see him with the sixth-best odds (+4000), given how poorly he has pitched. Valdez has a no-hitter within his last seven starts and has still been roughed up for a 6.18 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Valdez’s bread-and-butter, the best ground ball rate of any AL pitcher (53.5%), has not been as big of a weapon lately, as he recorded an alarming five ground-ball outs in his last appearance. That was a disastrous start against the Seattle Mariners, as he allowed six earned runs and was tagged for a season-high ten hits. And Detroit has been a sneaky good offensive team of late, cashing the Over on their team total in 16 of its last 24 games (+7.05 units, 25% ROI).

Most opponents have had little problem elevating Valdez lately, as he has allowed 10 home runs in his previous nine starts after giving up 11 long balls in all 31 starts last year. Meanwhile, Valdez’s counterpart, Detroit Tigers righty Matt Manning, should also allow runs in this game. Manning’s 6.05 home ERA is 2.48 runs higher than his road ERA, and he faces an Astros lineup that ranks fifth in HR/FB rate and eighth in wRC+ in road games against right-handed pitchers this year.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-122)

Texas Rangers (+102) vs. Minnesota Twins (-120) | O/U 8.5 (-120/-102)

Minnesota Twins righty Sonny Gray ranks second in the AL and fifth in the majors, with a 4.2 WAR. Among the 15 pitchers with a 2.9 WAR or better, Gray’s 3.15 BB/9 rate is the highest, but he leads the league in FIP (2.78) and HR/9 (0.31), which is a big reason he has made a whopping 14 starts with at least six innings pitched, and 22 starts allowing three or fewer earned runs.

Entering Thursday, the entire league was on pace to collectively hit the fourth-most home runs of all time, but Gray is on a historic home run prevention pace, allowing just five long balls all season. Only one other qualified starting pitcher has allowed fewer than 10 home runs this season (Marcus Stroman, eight), and the modern home run record is Garrett Richards’ 0.27 HR/9 mark in 2014.

Gray has a 9.25 K/9 rate this season but has increased that to 11.22 strikeouts per nine innings in August, ranking him in the top nine of all qualified starters in that span. He has 7+ strikeouts in all four August starts, and even his floor is relatively high, recording fewer than five Ks just once in his previous 11 starts. He should be in for many punchouts today, as the Texas Rangers have the fifth-highest strikeout rate (27.5%) during a seven-game losing streak dating back to August 16.

Sonny Gray is averaging his most innings per start since 2017, when he was with the Oakland Athletics.

2013 – 6.0
2014 – 6.6
2015 – 6.7
2016 – 5.3
2017 – 6.0
2018 – 4.9
2019 – 5.6
2020 – 5.1
2021 – 5.2
2022 – 5.0
2023 – 5.7 https://t.co/aqlaDGq3Vd pic.twitter.com/Yosy5ZJrwc

— Twins Gems (@TwinsGems) August 14, 2023

Pick: Twins Moneyline (-120)

Kansas City Royals (+168) vs. Seattle Mariners (-200) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)

While most rookie pitchers tend to fade late in a season after piling up a heavy workload, Seattle Mariners rookie Bryce Miller is doing the opposite. Miller has allowed just two earned runs in his last 17 innings (spanning three starts) and has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his previous seven appearances.

The most impressive part of Miller’s recent hot streak is that his last two starts came against two of the top three teams in the American League (Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros). And in his previous start against Houston, in which he recorded 19 outs (his longest outing since June 18), his average velocity was up at least one mph on all three primary pitches. Furthermore, he generated a 24% CSW, with CSW rates of 36% or better on his two secondary pitches (slider and sweeper).

The Kansas City Royals have a 38-90 record on the first five innings moneyline in its last 128 games (-28.05 units, -21% ROI). However, Seattle’s -172 F5 moneyline odds are too steep to make as a singular bet, so we are parlaying the Royals team total Under with the Mariners’ full game moneyline odds for better value.

Pick: KC Royals Under 3.5 runs and Mariners win (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.