With only a limited number of games tonight, you will need some more angles to make up the volume on your card. However, I’ve got you covered with my top five player props that span the length of the slate. So let’s dive into them and cash some tickets tonight.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami – 6:40 pm ET
Freddie Freeman has hit Pablo Lopez very well over the course of his career as he is batting .300, and four of his nine hits against him have been doubles. He is in line to continue his ownage of Lopez as Freeman is hitting .340 with a .956 OPS against right-handed pitching. For the icing on the cake, Lopez is due for some sizable regression against lefties as he has a 4.56 FIP against them this season. Given how good Freeman has been, getting him a plus money tonight is a tremendous value.
Dylan Bundy Over 0.5 Walks (-165)
Boston vs. Minnesota – 7:40 pm ET
This line is a gift. Yes, Bundy has an excellent walk rate that ranks in the top 11 percent of the majors, but that has not stopped him from issuing at least one free pass in 77.3 percent of his starts this season. That percentage gives us a staggering -339 implied odds that he will go over again. The line is likely based on his only start against Boston this season, where he did not walk a batter in a five-plus inning of work, but as we’ve gone over, that’s a rare occasion.
Frankie Montas Over 5.5 Strikeout (-155)
New York vs. Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 pm ET
Montas looked to finally find his bearing in his last outing as he punched out six Mets in six innings of work. Now he’ll get to face the Los Angeles Angels, who come into this game with the highest strikeout rate in the majors. While Montas has only gone over this total in 48 percent of his starts, one of those over was a dominant performance against this same Angels lineup. He struck out 12 Angels over six innings back in May, and the familiarity with this lineup should give him a boost. Look for him to deliver another great performance tonight.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+107)
Philadelphia vs. Arizona 9:40 pm ET
Bryce Harper may not have a great career number against Madison Bumgarner, but he is due for some positive regression, given the circumstances. First, Harper has hit lefties very well this season, as he’s batting .291 with .215 ISO against them. He will also be on the road, where he has crushed lefties. His average jumps to .424, and his OPS is 1.305. Lastly, Bumgarner has regressed quite a bit against lefties this year and is due to get by them as he has a 5.30 xFIP against them. Take a great hitter in a great spot at a great price.
Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
San Diego vs San Francisco – 9:45 pm ET
Carlos Rodon has been one of the best pitchers to target for strikeout props all season long. His 32.1 percent strikeout rate ranks in the top seven percent of all qualified pitchers. Tonight he’ll face a Padres lineup that he has gotten the best of on multiple occasions this season. In May, he struck out six Padres over six innings. Then in July, he struck out 12 Padres in a complete game effort. Rodon has gone over this total in 68 percent of his starts this year, and his strikeout rate against the Padres holds up against their new-look lineup. So if we get six innings out of him, he should hit the over again tonight.
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