We have a multitude of games on the slate, and we’re going to get an early start as my top five player props begin this afternoon. So let’s not waste any more time and find out who we’re backing today.
View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Houston vs. Texas 2:10 pm ET
Jose Altuve has notoriously crushed left-handed pitching over the course of his career, and this season has been no exception. In 2022. Altuve is hitting .306 with a 1.036 OPS and a staggering .352 ISO against lefties. This afternoon he gets to face a lefty who he has had plenty of success against in the past in Martin Perez. The two have squared off 52 times, and Altuve has done damage. He has a lifetime batting average of .288, and eight of his fifteen hits off Perez have been doubles. This is an excellent price for someone with the spits and extra-base power that Altuve possesses.
Joe Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
San Diego vs. San Francisco 3:45 pm ET
The total is much too low for Musgrove. Now he is certainly not your prototypical strikeout artist, but he averages six strikeouts per start. We have also already seen Musgrove go over this total against the Giants this season. He’s faced them on three separate occasions and has recorded four strikeouts in two of the outings and six in the other. While four seems to be a fair total, he has gone over this number in 69.6 percent of his starts, which gives us implied odds of -228 that he’ll go over again. So lay the juice and take advantage of this mispricing.
Triston McKenzie Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Baltimore vs. Cleveland 6:10 pm ET
McKenzie has been on an absolute tear over the last two months, as in his previous ten starts, he has an ERA of 2.14 and a WHIP of 0.85. A big key to his success has been racking up strikeouts. He has 69 strikeouts over those last ten starts, including a 14-strikeout performance against Chicago. While we don’t need him to replicate that tonight, we should see him go over this total, as Baltimore has the 12th-highest team strikeout rate in the majors. McKenzie has gone over this total in 58.3 percent of his starts, which gives us -140 implied odds he will go over again tonight.
Marco Gonzales Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-110)
Seattle vs. Detroit 7:10 pm ET
This total is too high even for a pitcher like Marco Gonzales. Gonzales does not have overpowering stuff, and he does give up his fair share of hits, but the Tigers are not the club that is going to rock him. Detroit has been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season. They enter this matchup with the fourth lowest team batting average in the majors, and they also have the fourth-highest strikeout rate. So not only are they not getting hits, they are not even making a ton of contact in general. Gonzales has gone under this number in 60 percent of his starts, which gives us -149 implied odds that he will go under again. Given the matchup, there’s a definite value in this total.
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
New York Yankees vs. LA Angels 9:38 pm ET
Much of the Angels lineup does not have great numbers against Gerrit Cole, and that does include Mike Trout. Trout is hitting just .278 off Cole, with one of his five hits being a homer. However, Trout is due to hit Cole hard as his xBA over 18 at-bats is .404, and his xSLG is .583. Also, we know Cole’s tendency to give up the long ball, so it would not surprise me to see Trout take him deep once again. At plus money, this is a great positive regression spot for Trout.
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