Griffin Jax is heavily favored to strike out at least four Baltimore Orioles tonight. Does the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher actually have a chance to hit that Over? Meanwhile, Will Warren will be tasked with navigating a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that has gotten the best of him in the past, while Angel Martinez looks to extend his hitting streak to seven games.
Here are the best MLB player prop bets for May 19th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Griffin Jax Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)
I can't believe how heavily favored Jax is to strike out at least four batters in this game. The price for this Over is -160 at DraftKings, which is insane considering he has yet to strike out more than three batters in any appearance this season.
While Jax has pitched at least 4.0 innings in back-to-back appearances, he has only four combined strikeouts in those two games. In his last start, he pitched 5.0 innings and didn't allow a single run, but he still only managed one strikeout.
The Orioles are one of the more strikeout-prone teams in the MLB, but they have a pretty good history against Jax. In 19 at-bats, they've only struck out twice, and they're hitting .316. With just 18 strikeouts in 23.0 innings, I don't think I'd back Jax to go over his posted total against anyone. But with the price for the Under set at +125, this is too good to pass up.
Will Warren Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+111)
Warren finds himself in a strength-vs-strength matchup against the Blue Jays tonight. The Blue Jays are the least strikeout-prone team in the Majors, while Warren is averaging 11.22 strikeouts per 9.0 innings pitched. Warren has struck out 59 batters this season.
Warren struck out only three batters in his first start of the season. Since then, he's struck out at least five batters in eight consecutive starts. He's struck out at least seven in seven of those contests. He's also reached at least nine strikeouts in two of his last five starts.
My major concern with Warren in this matchup is how well the current Blue Jays' lineup has hit against him. In 34 at-bats, they have five home runs and a batting average of .412. But the Blue Jays haven't faced Warren yet this season, and the team is really struggling to score, with just 188 runs this year. Warren is throwing his best stuff, while the Blue Jays have struggled at the plate. For this price, I'll take a shot on Warren.
Angel Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Martinez is hitting just .266 this season, but he's been on fire of late. He's hit safely in six consecutive games, with multiple hits in two of those contests. He also has at least two total bases in four of his last five games.
Tigers' starter Keider Montero has a WHIP of just 0.99 this season, but when teams do hit against him, they normally do damage. He's allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last six starts, and in his last start, he allowed four earned runs and two home runs in just 4.2 innings.
Martinez doesn't have an extra-base hit against Montero in his career, but he's 2-of-3 against him. And considering Martinez has homered in four of his last five games, and Montero has allowed five home runs in his last four games, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Martinez went deep again.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.