Dave Rasmussen has been excellent for the Tampa Bay Rays, but I'm expecting him to struggle a bit against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that doesn't strike out much. Then, I highlight why Freddy Peralta is in for a huge game against the Colorado Rockies, and why it's worth taking a shot on Max Muncy. Here are the best MLB player props for Tuesday, May 5th.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 7-8-0 (+0.31 units)
Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-101)
With 32 strikeouts in 30.2 innings and an ERA of 2.64, Drew Rasmussen is off to a hot start this season. However, I'm going to back him to go under 4.5 strikeouts.
Rasmussen has at least six strikeouts in four of his six starts this season. However, in the other two, he has just five combined. And while he's pitched at least five innings in five of his six starts, longevity isn't his strong suit, as he has yet to pitch more than six innings in a single appearance.
The reason this is so important is that the Blue Jays are the least strikeout-prone team in the Majors. Through 34 games, they have struck out just 227 times, 14 fewer than any other team.
The current Blue Jays lineup is hitting just .200 against Rasmussen, but he's only striking out one out of every five Blue Jays he faces. That means, he'd likely need to reach his max of six innings to hit the over. Against such a good contact team, even six innings probably isn't enough to get the job done.
Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+117)
I understand the Mets have lost five of Freddy Peralta's seven starts this season, but more often than not, that has had to do with the Mets' poor offense, rather than Peralta's pitching. Peralta has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six consecutive starts, which is a big part of the reason why he's pitched at least five innings in all but one appearance this season.
Peralta has been great at striking out opponents in his time on the mound, recording 42 punchouts in 38.1 innings this season. He has at least five strikeouts in all but one of his starts, and he's struck out at least seven batters in a game three times this season.
Then there is the fact that the Rockies strike out a lot. Their 335 strikeouts are the second-most in the league. Peralata struck out eight Rockies on April 24th, in a game in which he pitched 5.2 innings. In his career, Peralta has struck out 20 current Rockies in 60 at-bats. With all of this in mind, I can't believe the over is priced at +117.
Max Muncy Over 1.5 Hits (+250)
Max Muncy failed to hit safely in the first game of the Dodgers' series with the Astros, but I still have great confidence in him in tonight's game. He's hit safely in four of his last five games, and in nine of his last 11. Though he only has one multi-hit game during that stretch, he's about to get a great matchup against Peter Lambert.
Lambert has a WHIP of 1.24 this season, though he's only allowed more than three hits in one of his three starts. However, he's struggled with Muncy throughout his career, allowing Muncy to record four hits, all of which have been for extra bases.
Considering the Astros have allowed the fifth-most hits in the league, even if Lambert gets chased before Muncy can record multiple hits off him, there will be plenty of opportunities against the bullpen.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.