Randy Vasquez hasn't had much success striking out opponents of late. Tonight, he's tasked with taking on a lineup that shelled him his last time out. Below, I explain why he's in for another difficult outing. Then, I highlight why Steven Matz is worth taking a shot on against the Tigers, and why I expect Ceddanne Rafaela to continue his hot hitting against the Orioles. Here are the best MLB player props and bets for Tuesday, June 2nd.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Steven Matz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+140)
Matz's last start was a terrible one. He pitched only 3.0 innings, as he gave up six earned runs and struck out just two batters. Each of his last two starts has come against the Orioles, and while his last one was one to forget, the one before that saw him strike out five batters in just 4.0 innings, while allowing just one earned run.
This inconsistency has plagued Matz all season. He's started nine games, striking out at least five batters in three of those appearances, but striking out two or fewer in four. He's also struggled to stay on the mound at times, pitching 4.0 innings or fewer in three of his last five appearances.
While Matz's inconsistencies are worrisome, I like him tonight because the Tigers strike out a lot. They've struck out the ninth-most times this season, and even last night, when Rays' starter Griffin Jax went just 4.0 innings, he struck out five batters. This is my riskiest play of the day, but if Matz can pitch at least 6.0 innings, as he's done three times this season, he can exploit this favorable matchup.
Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
For the second time in as many starts, Vasquez will face the Phillies. The last time he went up against Philadelphia's lineup, he allowed three home runs and eight hits in 5.2 innings. He struck out only two batters in that start.
But that start isn't the only reason I like this Under tonight. Vasquez has struck out three or fewer batters in four of his last five starts, despite pitching at least 5.0 innings in all but one of those games. He only has 47 strikeouts in 60.1 innings, and with how he pitched the last time he faced the Phillies, he may need 7.0 innings to hit this Over.
Additionally, Vasquez's career history against the Phillies is terrible. The Phillies are hitting .409 against him, and they've only struck out three times in 44 at-bats.
Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 Total Bases (+113)
Rafaela didn't play on Sunday, giving him two days off to rest a sore lower back. Though he was working through the minor injury, you'd never know it based on how Rafaela is hitting. He's hit safely in 11 of his last 13 games. During that 13-game stretch, he has at least two total bases in nine games.
Tonight, Rafaela faces Shane Baz, a pitcher who has allowed 65 hits in 64.1 innings this season. Baz has allowed at least five hits in all but two of his starts, and in his last outing, he allowed seven hits, despite also striking out nine batters.
Rafaela is 2-for-6 against Baz in his career. Though he doesn't have any extra-base hits against him, 18 of Rafaela's 53 hits have been for extra bases this season. And though Rafaela has only hit five home runs this season, Baz has allowed seven this year, including one in seven of his last nine starts. To put it simply, Rafaela is hot right now, and in this matchup, he has a lot of ways to hit this Over.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.