For the second straight week, I hit two out of my three MLB player props. On each occasion, wagering on Alec Burleson made the difference. While I considered backing him again, I found other opportunities I like more. Here are my three favorite MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, April 22nd.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
For my first MLB player prop for Wednesday's slate, I am betting on Ranger Suarez to go under his strikeout line, which is currently set at 5.5. This number seems a tick too high given how Suarez has operated thus far in 2026. He has simply not been missing enough bats to expect him to exceed this number. Out of 107 pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this season, Suarez has the fifth-lowest swinging strike rate and fifth-highest contact rate. The result is a lowly 17.4% strikeout rate through four starts.
The Yankees have struck out the eighth-most against lefties in the Majors. However, they’ve shown improvement recently during a stretch with many left-handed opponents. New York has faced lefty starters in four of their last five games, with those pitchers striking out just 15 out of 80 batters. Those numbers are consistent with Suarez's season strikeout rate.
This number feels like it should be 4.5 rather than 5.5. Considering his inability to miss bats and New York's recent success against southpaws, I am betting the under on this strikeout prop.
Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 at theScore Bet)
Drake Baldwin has been one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball through the season's first four weeks. The Atlanta catcher entered Tuesday's action leading the Majors in runs scored and tied for the lead in RBI. I expect Baldwin to continue his hot hitting on Wednesday when the Braves face Washington’s Zack Littell.
You can make the argument that Littell is the worst starting pitcher on a staff that includes Miles Mikolas. Littell enters this matchup with a 7.11 ERA. And that number is actually lower than both his expected ERA and FIP. Littell gave up eight runs and 11 hits in his last start against the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have averaged 3.1 runs per game in the other 22 games they have played this season.
I am playing the total base props because the price for Baldwin's hits + runs + RBIs line is understandably through the roof. The good news is that Littell pitches to a high rate of contact. His career strikeout plus walk rate is just 25%. This should feed into Baldwin putting the ball in play, as he has a similar profile. He has struck out or walked in just 24% of his career plate appearances.
Baldwin has gone over this number in five of his last seven games overall. That includes four multi-hit games in his last five against right-handed starting pitchers. Baldwin has a career .206 ISO versus righties. This is an extremely favorable matchup for Baldwin, no matter how you slice it.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-137 at Caesars Sportsbook)
On Tuesday night, San Diego defeated Colorado 1-0. Perhaps that is part of the reason the price for this prop is so low. Maybe it is because Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn’t truly gotten going this season. He somehow enters Wednesday's matchup without a home run. Or it could be because people saw he went 0-for-3 two weeks ago against Tomoyuki Sugano. Either way, I am confidently backing Tatis on Wednesday.
Despite Tuesday's anomaly, Coors Field is still very much a hitter's haven. And Tatis has historically raked in the thin air of Colorado. In 35 career road games against the Rockies, Tatis has 95 total bases. He also had about as positive of an 0-for-3 performance as possible the last time he faced Sugano. All three of Tatis' at-bats versus Sugano in that game resulted in hard-hit contact. The last two had exit velocities well over 100 miles per hour (MPH) and an expected batting average over .700.
Sugano may enter this game with an ERA under 4.00, but don't expect that to last. His FIP is 5.55, and his expected ERA is 7.65. Like Littell, he allows few walks. Sugano has only walked 5% of right-handed batters in his brief MLB career. That should only increase the chances that Tatis clears this number. Some better batted ball luck should result in a big day at the plate for Tatis on Wednesday.
