Last week was a rough one for my MLB player props. However, I honestly believe all the reads were solid. My Otto Lopez bet hit even though he didn't start, but the sportsbooks voided that one. Jackson Merrill stranded a runner in scoring position and was stranded himself there twice. And the Mets put up 26 total bases in their game. I just happened to pick the one regular who didn't get the memo.
All of this is to say that sometimes good bets don't hit. While it would be nice if the opposite were equally true, we all know better. Moving forward, I am ready with three more MLB player props for this Wednesday's slate. In fact, I am even going back to the well with one of last week's picks. No, it is not Mark Vientos, although I am rooting for you if you're betting on him.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Griffin Jax Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
The Tampa Bay Rays are stretching Griffin Jax out in an effort to make him a viable starting pitcher. He threw 31 pitches in his first start a couple of weeks back. From there, he has bumped his count to 45 and then to 59. If he follows the same trajectory on Wednesday, he should be in line to throw 70 or 75 pitches.
That should be good for four or five innings. But it also feels like his absolute ceiling. Before Jax's last start, Rays manager Kevin Cash said there wasn't a particular threshold with regard to pitches or innings pitched. There is no guarantee he pitches five innings, or even four. This number feels a bit high, given those factors and Jax's history.
It is not as if Jax gives up a ton of hits to begin with. For his career, opposing batters are hitting .229 against Tampa Bay's right-hander. That number is in line with a couple of other key numbers. Toronto Blue Jays batters are hitting .226 in their previous head-to-head matchups with Jax.
The Blue Jays are collectively hitting .230 as a team over the last seven days. All of these numbers suggest Jax is likely to allow slightly less than a hit per inning pitched. As a result, I am betting the under on Jax's hits allowed on Wednesday.
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+102 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bailey Ober carved up the Miami Marlins lineup on Tuesday. It was a bit unexpected considering the Marlins had scored 30 runs over their previous six ball games. Ober's effort is highly unlikely to be duplicated by Simeon Woods Richardson.
It is not hyperbole to say that Woods Richardson is one of the worst starting pitchers in the Major Leagues. 132 pitchers have thrown at least 30 innings so far this season. He ranks 120th or worse in ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP. Woods Richardson has allowed 30 earned runs and struck out 19 batters this season.
Right-handed batters have had considerable success against Woods Richardson in 2026. They are hitting .346 and slugging .603 against the right-hander. That includes a .429 average and .829 slugging rate allowed in home games.
Woods Richardson uses a four-seam fastball, slider and splitter primarily when facing right-handed hitters. Against pitches thrown by righties this season, Lopez has a .346 batting average and .538 slugging rate.
Otto Lopez has failed to record multiple total bases in two straight games. However, Miami's shortstop had hit this mark in 11 of his previous 12 contests, including last Wednesday's non-start. Lopez should get back on track on Wednesday, facing an extremely hittable pitcher who features a pitch mix he has success against.
Zack Gelof Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
First, let me say that I believe this prop can be had at a better price later in the morning. FanDuel Sportsbook rarely has the best price on this market. As I write this, FanDuel and Fanatics are the only major sportsbooks to have posted this prop. I am comfortable paying this price, but you may be able to get a better price once the rest of the sportsbooks catch up.
Zack Gelof's nine-game hitting streak came to an end on Tuesday. He had at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs in five of those nine games. That may not seem like a lot considering he hit safely in all nine games. But I think the sportsbooks are missing a key piece of information.
Gelof has mostly hit towards the bottom of the Athletics' batting order this season. Overall, he has hit in the lower third of the order in 15 of his 18 starts. However, the last two times the Athletics have faced a left-handed starting pitcher, Gelof has hit fifth. He went 2-for-6 with a home run and two walks in those two games. There is a chance he hits even higher in the lineup on Wednesday.
The team placed Jacob Wilson on the injured list (IL) on Tuesday. Wilson had led off in five straight games versus left-handed starters. There's a real chance Gelof hits fourth or higher on Wednesday, giving him more opportunities to hit the over.
The Athletics will be opposed by Matthew Liberatore of the St. Louis Cardinals in this contest. He is essentially a league-average MLB pitcher. Liberatore enters this game with a career ERA of 4.57, and his expected ERA is 5.03.
In five Major League seasons, opposing right-handed hitters have posted a .342 weighted on-base percentage against Liberatore. The league average is .316. Gelof is 3-for-5 with a double lifetime versus Liberatore.
I haven't even mentioned the ballpark or hitting conditions yet. Sutter Health Park has been one of the friendliest parks to hitters in baseball. It trails only Coors Field in terms of overall park factor since last season.
Wednesday's game will be played in 80-degree temperatures with a slight breeze out towards center field. I expect the Athletics to score at least a handful of runs in this game, and for Gelof to be right in the thick of the action.
