It was nice to hit two out of our three MLB player props last week. Still, it was frustrating to miss an over on a player whose team scored nine runs. Sadly, that was the second week in a row that occurred.
Let's see if we can get some positive regression on that front this week and hopefully sweep the board. Here are my three favorite MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, May 20th.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+121 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Elly De La Cruz has been outstanding over the past two weeks. I expect him to continue that form in Wednesday's series finale in Philadelphia.
De La Cruz has recorded two or more total bases in 10 of his last 12 games. That includes eight of his last nine games in which Cincinnati faced a right-handed starting pitcher. The Phillies will send veteran right-hander Aaron Nola to the mound on Wednesday afternoon.
Nola continues to struggle following a subpar 2025 campaign. He enters this matchup with a 5.91 ERA in nine starts. He has had major issues containing left-handed hitters. Opposing lefties are hitting .325 and slugging .525 versus Nola so far this season.
Nola is currently posting his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie year in 2015. He has struck out just 18.1% of lefty bats this season. De La Cruz has never faced Nola, but he profiles well against Nola's arsenal of pitches.
Nola throws four pitches to left-handed hitters - a knuckle curve, a four-seam fastball, a change-up and a slider. De La Cruz is hitting .330 and slugging .527 on those offerings from righties so far this season.
Given Nola's declining skills and De La Cruz's hot streak, I fully expect the Cincinnati shortstop to continue his hot hitting and record at least two total bases on Wednesday.
Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Ezequiel Duran dominated the Colorado Rockies in the first two games of this series. The Texas utilityman has racked up six hits and six RBI through nine at-bats over two Coors Field outings. He has swung the bat 11 times, producing five hard-hit balls and a barrel. On Wednesday, Duran will continue to pad those stats when he faces Kyle Freeland.
Freeland has made seven starts this season, ranking among the most hittable pitchers in the Major Leagues. He has allowed 44 hits and 27 earned runs in only 33.2 innings.
Freeland’s .310 batting average allowed and .356 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed rank fifth-highest among 145 pitchers with at least 30 innings. In his last three starts, he surrendered at least six earned runs and eight hits.
Texas has been a poor offensive club versus southpaws this season. However, the opponent and hitting conditions could not be much better. The Rangers have scored 16 runs so far in this series. This number seems like a relatively low bar for Duran to clear, all things considered.
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+116 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
For my final MLB player prop bet on Wednesday's slate, I am backing Luis Arraez to collect at least two total bases against Arizona and Merrill Kelly.
Arraez is normally a safer bet for his hits + runs + RBIs prop than total bases. However, I think there is just as great a chance Arraez records two or more total bases, especially considering his history against Kelly.
Arraez is 5-for-14 lifetime versus Arizona's starting pitcher. That is par for the course for Arraez, whose career MLB batting average is .317. But all five of his hits against Kelly are extra-base hits. That is odd for the second baseman.
Even including his numbers versus Kelly, 78.3% of Arraez's career hits are singles. Arraez clearly sees Kelly well, and that was when Kelly was a much better version of himself.
Kelly's 5.91 ERA is actually outpaced by his higher expected ERA (7.89) and FIP (5.94). He has surrendered 13 extra-base hits to left-handers in only 92 plate appearances, while his strikeout rate and called strikes plus whiffs rate are both at career lows.
If Kelly limits Arraez, we have additional outs to cash this prop. Arraez is 17-for-39 with four doubles and just one walk versus Arizona's relievers. This matchup decisively favors Arraez overall.
