Last week's 1-2 record on MLB player props stung, but there's no use dwelling on it. Wednesday brings a great chance to bounce back. Here are my three favorite MLB player prop bets for June 24.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jac Caglianone OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+125)
My first player prop on Wednesday features arguably the hottest hitter on the planet. I am talking about Jac Caglianone of the Kansas City Royals.
Nothing is guaranteed, especially when it comes to betting on human beings. That said, the price for this prop stands out considering Caglianone's recent form. He hit two more home runs Tuesday, making it six in five games. Caglianone also has a total of 27 hits, runs, and RBI in those games. While he can't stay this hot, he's proven over the past several weeks to be a capable producer. Even if you remove his last five games, Caglianone has 40 combined hits, runs, and RBI in his other 15 June outings. That is nearly three per game, and we are getting plus-money on him reaching two.
Caglianone's matchup against Griffin Jax and the Tampa Bay Rays appears favorable. Jax has struggled against left-handed hitters and when pitching at home. This season, lefties are hitting .280 with a .467 slugging percentage off Jax. Of the nine home runs Jax has surrendered, six have been to left-handed batters, and seven of those nine have come at home.
Jax throws as many as six pitches, but his two most frequent offerings are his changeup and four-seam fastball. Caglianone is hitting .338 and slugging .649 when facing those two pitches from right-handers this year.
The Royals have scored 50 runs in their last six games. Even with Maikel Garcia out and Bobby Witt Jr. questionable, I like their chances against Jax and expect Caglianone to be a key factor. I'm backing him to record at least two HRRBI. If you prefer, his total base prop is available at +185 on Fanatics.
Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Next, I am betting Bryce Harper records at least two total bases against Miles Mikolas and the Washington Nationals.
Harper is in excellent form, with 10 hits and five extra-base hits in his last four games. He is 9-for-25 with four extra-base hits against Mikolas, and his expected numbers against him (.425 xBA, .917 xSLG) are even better.
Mikolas, of course, is no stranger to giving up extra-base hits. He has given up 28 extra-base hits in 74 innings this year. Against left-handed hitters, Mikolas has surrendered 16 extra-base hits in just 41 innings against left-handed batters.
The Nationals have used openers when Mikolas is slated to start several times this season. However, Washington had PJ Poulin open on Tuesday for Zack Littell. While it is possible they pitch Poulin on back-to-back days, they may just opt to have Mikolas start.
Even if Poulin draws the starting nod, the Nationals will need to rely on a heavy dose of Mikolas. They used eight pitchers overall in Tuesday's game, including all three of their left-handed relievers.
Harper will get two or three plate appearances versus Mikolas and then likely face a beleaguered Washington bullpen in his other plate appearances. Even when at full strength, the Nationals’ relievers are not a strong group. They enter Wednesday's matchup with bottom-three rankings in xERA, FIP, and xFIP.
This is a great matchup for a hot hitter. Expect Bryce Harper to record at least two total bases on Wednesday.
Shane Drohan OVER 14.5 Pitcher Outs (-162)
For my final MLB player prop on Wednesday, I am backing Shane Drohan of the Milwaukee Brewers to pitch at least five innings against the Cincinnati Reds. Admittedly, the price for this prop is steep and is right on the border where I usually pass. Still, I believe there is value here despite the high price tag.
If we exclude a spot start on April 8, Drohan joined the Brewers' rotation at the start of June. He went four innings in his June 1 start, but that start came just four days after he had pitched two innings in relief. There was virtually no way he was going to last five innings in that start. Since then, he has gone at least five innings in each of his last three starts on regular rest.
Drohan has solid numbers overall, including a 3.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 3.14 xERA. He maxed out in his last start with 91 pitches. If he reaches that pitch count again, he should be able to make it through five innings against a Cincinnati Reds offense that has struggled mightily of late.
The Reds have registered a total of 16 runs and 35 hits across their last six games. Those numbers are particularly damning when you consider they scored 10 runs on 15 hits in one of those games.
Additionally, the circumstances surrounding this game suggest Drohan could be given more leeway. Milwaukee's top three relievers have all pitched in the first two games of this series and will be unavailable. Long reliever Chad Patrick should be available, but the other Brewers relievers have been inconsistent. This feels like a game where Milwaukee will try to get Drohan through five or six innings before giving Patrick the ball if they have the lead.
