MLB Player To Hit A Home Run Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/30)

Who has a chance to go yard tonight in MLB, and what values are the books hanging out there for baseball bettors to take advantage of?

Here are my best bets to hit a home run today, Wednesday, Aug. 30.

Wednesday’s Best Player to Hit a Home Run Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Freddie Freeman (+400) & Max Muncy (+225)

I want to mention that I also like this spot for Mookie Betts. However, the fact he hit an HR last night is the only reason I am not including it in my props today. Yes, he may be able to go deep in back-to-back games, but I don’t have much luck when I include players who have hit an HR in the previous games. So, ultimately, we use Betts as an honorable mention.

Arizona’s starter Brandon Pfaadt has HR/9 2.01, the highest among today’s starters, with at least 20 innings pitched. His 15 HRs allowed are third most on the team, yet he has only thrown 67 innings. To put that in perspective, Ryne Nelson has allowed the most HRs at 22, but he’s also thrown almost double the amount of innings (125) than Pfaadt.

Freddie Freeman has seen the ball well out of Pfaadt’s hand in a small sample size, going 2 for 3 with one double in his only game against the righty. More exposure against a poor pitcher is a good thing for Freeman.

As for Max Muncy, it’s pretty much an HR or bust this season. He is tied with Betts with 22 HRs against RHP while only batting .205. I think we see another offensive outburst from this Dodgers lineup.

Paul Goldschmidt (+370) & Nolan Arenado (+285)

I am unsure what the Padres envisioned when trading for Rich Hill at the deadline, but an 0-3 record with a 9.00 ERA was not it.

Hill has lost all three starts he has made since joining San Diego and has allowed five home runs. He hasn’t had a game where his ERA has dipped below five, and he’s allowed at least three earned runs in every start.

Despite their offense being non-existent for most of the season, the Cardinals have shown some life at home. They rank inside the top 10 in HRs, Runs, BABIP, OBP and wRC+ at Busch Stadium.

Paul Goldschmidt has had success against the Padres lefty in his career, batting .462 with 3 HRs in 26 at-bats.

Nolan Arenado is 3 for 13 (.231) with 1 HR against Hill in his career but also leads the team HRs (five) against lefties this season.

Rafael Devers (+500)

Framber Valdez is hard to figure out. He has the capability to throw a no-hitter, but then the very next outing, he gets shelled, allowing six runs on 10 hits. With Valdez, he feasts against weaker prey but struggles against teams higher on the food chain.

The Boston Red Sox are in the middle of a playoff push and are excellent at home. This could be a recipe for disaster for Valdez and the Astros. Of the 16 HRs Valdez has allowed, 11 have been on the road, and 12 have been from left-handed hitters.

Rafael Devers could have a big night, as he has always been able to hit Valdez, batting .500 (6 for 12) with one home run.