Happy Humpday! Wednesday’s slate started earlier than I anticipated, so we’ll target the other 11 games instead. Pitcher props are always my focus as I’ve found the most success with them when wagering on MLB.
I tend to stay away from batter props due to the unlucky nature of hitting. One can barrel up a ball and not be rewarded because it’s hit right at someone. Additionally, walks and hit-by-pitches can also limit at-bats. Most batters only get four plate appearances as it is, and the best of the best only get a hit 30% of the time.
Wednesday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
PrizePicks record: 10-9-2
Happy Humpday! Wednesday’s slate started earlier than I anticipated, so we’ll target the other 11 games instead. Pitcher props are always my focus as I’ve found the most success with them when wagering on MLB.
I tend to stay away from batter props due to the unlucky nature of hitting. One can barrel up a ball and not be rewarded because it’s hit right at someone. Additionally, walks and hit-by-pitches can also limit at-bats. Most batters only get four plate appearances as it is, and the best of the best only get a hit 30% of the time.
Wednesday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
PrizePicks record: 10-9-2
Luis Castillo Under 18.5 Outs
I got burned on this in Castillo’s last start, but still think this is worth a wager against the Rangers today. Castillo is one of the elite starters in the game but doesn’t typically work deep into games. A lot of that is in part to his 4.04 pitches per plate appearance which is the 28th-highest among 125 qualified starters. He has failed to exceed this number in five of seven starts this year, and 17 of 25 last year.
The AL West first-place Rangers have been one of the best teams hitting righties too, so they shouldn’t make this easy on Castillo. Texas is 5th in wRC+ (113) when facing RHP and 17 of the 25 right-handed starters to face the Rangers have stayed under this. Admittedly, we did just see Logan Gilbert and George Kirby shut this lineup down, but that just means the Mariners bullpen is fresh and ready to go as soon as anything goes awry, right? Right.
Cristian Javier Over 6 Strikeouts
My long-shot AL Cy Young pick (+2500) hasn’t performed at that level to begin the season, but his track record against the Angels is of that caliber. At least in the strikeout department. Javier had two starts against the Halos last season and somehow had 24 punchouts in 10 2/3 innings.
His strikeout numbers have been a bit behind early on, but Javier is coming off an eight K performance against Seattle and had seven and ten punchouts in his two previous starts as well. He’s in the top 88% in Chase Rate, and even though the Angels haven’t struck out the most this year, I like Javier’s chances tonight in Anaheim.
Josiah Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts
The lineup San Francisco has posted today is as strikeout-heavy as it gets. Seven of the nine hitters have a strikeout rate of 25% or greater. That’s right in line with their K-rate on the season (25.7%), which is 2nd highest against righties.
Gray has cleared this in three straight starts against some of the more punchout-averse teams. He had six apiece against the Diamondbacks (30th in K% vs RHP, 18.8%) and Pirates (20th), and had nine against the Mets (27th). Josiah should be in store for plenty of Ks today.
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Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.
