For the past couple of years, my primary focus on MLB wagers has revolved around pitcher props. While that still remains true, I think I’ve found a new shiny toy: batter strikeouts. Targeting the least K-prone hitters, there might be an edge to be had in this market. In the early going it has been profitable, so I’ll preview a couple I like today.
Wednesday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
PrizePicks record: 16-10-2
Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 Strikeouts
Masataka Yoshida has jumped out to a hotter start than anyone could have imagined. The 29-year-old Japanese rookie has a 140 wRC+ and rates in the top 88% in xwOBA in his first month and a half in MLB. He has also showcased elite bat control, which makes him a fantastic target for this type of wager. Yoshida has not struck out in 25 of his first 35 stateside games. He ranks in the top 97% in K%, 88% in Whiff%, and 76% in Chase Rate.
For the past couple of years, my primary focus on MLB wagers has revolved around pitcher props. While that still remains true, I think I’ve found a new shiny toy: batter strikeouts. Targeting the least K-prone hitters, there might be an edge to be had in this market. In the early going it has been profitable, so I’ll preview a couple I like today.
Wednesday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
PrizePicks record: 16-10-2
Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 Strikeouts
Masataka Yoshida has jumped out to a hotter start than anyone could have imagined. The 29-year-old Japanese rookie has a 140 wRC+ and rates in the top 88% in xwOBA in his first month and a half in MLB. He has also showcased elite bat control, which makes him a fantastic target for this type of wager. Yoshida has not struck out in 25 of his first 35 stateside games. He ranks in the top 97% in K%, 88% in Whiff%, and 76% in Chase Rate.
Today, he will face the Mariners lefty, Marco Gonzales, who has consistently ranked in the bottom 10% in K% and Whiff% over the last three seasons. Aside from a nine-strikeout performance against the Brewers, who own the highest K% against lefties, Gonzales has rarely struck out many batters. He has a K log of 2, 4, 2, 2, 1, 9, 5, and 1. He will likely pitch until the 6th inning or so before the bullpen gets involved. The Mariners do possess strikeout-heavy bullpen arms, but they are just 16th in K% against left-handed hitters. Yoshida will find a way to put the bat on the ball in his four to five plate appearances today.
Steven Kwan Under 0.5 Strikeouts
He might not hit it very hard or far, but Steven Kwan is another batter with elite plate vision and bat control. Ranking in the top 99% in Whiff%, 95% in K%, 91% in Chase Rate, and 75% in BB%, Kwan finds a way to put the ball in play and avoid Ks. He has stayed under this mark in 25/41 games this year and was under in 94/147 (64%) last season. Tonight he and the Guardians will face Mike Clevinger, who is a shell of his former Cleveland self.
Prior to being traded to the Padres, Clevinger was one of the premier K-artists in the game, but since then he has fallen off significantly. He ranks in the bottom 28% in K%, 27% in Whiff%, and 19% in Chase Rate this year, which is not far off from last season. Kwan has one strikeout in six plate appearances against him. The real trouble will come in the later innings with the White Sox bullpen, but in Kwan I trust. So should you.
Nathan Eovaldi Over 33.5 Fantasy Score
There might not be a hotter pitcher on the planet right now, aside from the pitcher who toes the rubber opposite of him tonight, I suppose. Spencer Strider and Nathan Eovaldi are two flame-throwing righties on a different level right now, but I’ll take Nate the Great at this discounted price compared to Strider’s 46.5 line any day. The projection obviously factors in the bats each starter will face, but the Atlanta bats haven’t been at their best as of late.
Over the last two weeks, they are just 27th in wRC+ (77) when facing right-handed pitching. We just saw Dane Dunning mow them down and finish with a fantasy score of 37 yesterday. Eovaldi has thrown 25.2 scoreless innings over his last three starts with 25 strikeouts. He has eclipsed this line in five straight starts, and he has a solid history of containing this roster. The Braves have a combined .273 xwOBA and 27.9% K% in 68 plate appearances against Eovaldi. With the form he is in, he should find a way to another quality start at the minimum and exceed this line once again.
Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 Strikeouts
One final pitcher prop to wrap up the article. Matthew Liberatore makes the spot start for the Cardinals today, and as I stated with Marco’s nine Ks, there is no better matchup for a Southpaw than the Milwaukee Brewers. They have the highest strikeout rate (30.7%) and third worst wRC+ (77) when facing lefties. Every single Southpaw starter to face them has recorded at least five strikeouts. 12 out of 12 is a pretty good hit rate, wouldn’t you say, Liberatore?
The Cardinals’ top pitching prospect actually squared off against Milwaukee last year and struck out five. It’s obviously not apples to apples, but he has five or more strikeouts in all eight of his minor league starts this year, averaging seven per game. He possesses a nasty curveball that he’ll be sure to put on display pitching in front of the home crowd.
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Wednesday:
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Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.
