Happy humid hump day, all! We’re in the dead heat of summer right now, and the offensive production has really ticked up. That should lead us to more unders when it comes to pitcher player predictions.
Here are the ones I like best over at PrizePicks for Wednesday, July 26.
Wednesday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
This season: 51-28-3
I was watching the game last night, and the ball was jumping out of Dodger Stadium. Today, Los Angeles will have around 11 mph of wind blowing straight out to centerfield with temperatures in the mid-90s. That’s as good of hitting weather as a game will get.
Happy humid hump day, all! We’re in the dead heat of summer right now, and the offensive production has really ticked up. That should lead us to more unders when it comes to pitcher player predictions.
Here are the ones I like best over at PrizePicks for Wednesday, July 26.
Wednesday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
This season: 51-28-3
I was watching the game last night, and the ball was jumping out of Dodger Stadium. Today, Los Angeles will have around 11 mph of wind blowing straight out to centerfield with temperatures in the mid-90s. That’s as good of hitting weather as a game will get.
Tony Gonsolin has been a shell of himself since last year with a 5.03 xFIP. He also ranks in the bottom 23% in xERA/xwOBA, 14% in whiff% and 27% in K%. The Dodgers typically don’t let him work deep into games either, as he averages just 80 pitches per outing. Gonsolin has stayed under this line in nine of 15 starts, and facing this Blue Jays lineup will do him no favors either. They have the seventh-best wRC+ (109) against righties on the year.
With the highest strikeout rate against righties on the year and over the last 30 days, the Twins are almost always an auto bet to hit the over on strikeouts. 15 of the last 21 right-handed starters to face them have recorded at least five strikeouts. Seven consecutive righty starters have cleared this line against them, averaging 9.0 strikeouts per outing.
Bryce Miller has exceeded this mark in four of his last six starts, and the Twins are unfamiliar with what he brings to the plate, having never faced him before. He has still gone over this mark in two of his last three, despite having a pitch count of around 70 pitches. He left a start on June 30 due to a blister on his middle finger but appears to be back to the regularly scheduled programming. I’d expect him to reach a pitch count around the 80s today. The Twins have the highest K% against 4-seam fastballs, and Miller has an elite heater that he throws 68% of the time. That pitch of his has the 13th-best SwStr% (15.1%). Look for Miller to get to at least six punchouts today at home.
Alright, here’s one of the few games in a domed environment, and Chase Field actually rates as a league-average scoring stadium by Statcast’s Park Factors metrics. Zac Gallen at home is as money as it gets. Across 10 starts at Chase Field, he is 9-0 with a 2.72 xFIP, 10.21 K/9, and has pitched into the seventh inning in seven of those 10 starts. He has surpassed this line in nine of the 10 starts, averaging 48.4 per outing. As hot as the Cardinals have been at the plate lately, they are no match for Gallen when he pitches at home.
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Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.
