We have a full slate of MLB action on tap for Friday, which means it is time to cook up some Same Game Parlays! I am looking at a lot of interesting matchups, but I have one quick note before I get to my SGPs for Friday.
Games in Coors Field are always popular for SGP purposes, and the Rockies host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday. However, the Pirates are using an opener, which always causes the books to drag their feet. As of publication, I have not seen any player props available, so I will be avoiding that game.
With that disclaimer out of the way, here are my three favorite SGPs for Friday, June 14’s MLB slate.
Friday's Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
- Leg 1: Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (+122)
- Leg 2: Zack Littell 4+ Strikeouts (-245)
- Leg 3: Under 5.5 First 5 Innings Alternate Total Runs (-225)
- Leg 4: Marcell Ozuna to Record a Hit (-270)
We smacked an SGP in last week's article that included a gem from Chris Sale. Here's to hoping we can repeat the feat this week.
Last Friday, Sale struck out 10 batters but was a tough-luck loser in a 2-1 game. It was the sixth time in seven starts that Sale recorded at least eight strikeouts. I think he is in line for another high-strikeout game on Friday.
The Tampa Bay Rays have the third-highest strikeout rate (25.7%) versus left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Since designating Harold Ramirez for assignment last week, they have struck out at a rate of 30.3% against left-handers.
On the other side of the equation is Zack Littell. He only has five total strikeouts over his last two starts. However, both outings were against the Baltimore Orioles, who are adept at avoiding strikeouts. Atlanta has not been as difficult in that regard.
The Braves have struck out in 24.7% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since losing league MVP Ronald Acuna to a torn ACL. Despite his low strikeout games against Baltimore, Littell has cleared this line in nine of 13 starts this season. I think four strikeouts is quite doable in this matchup.
If you feel strongly about one pitcher over the other, you can add one strikeout on one side, remove one from the other and get a similar effect regarding this SGP. However, I prefer eight-plus for Sale and four-plus for Littell as the most achievable build for both sides. Given the advantageous matchups for both pitchers, I am adjusting the total runs over the first five innings and taking the Under on 5.5 total runs through five frames.
I am taking Marcell Ozuna to record a hit for the last leg. Ozuna has easily been the Braves' best hitter this season. He enters Friday night's game hitting .322, including a .351 mark at home. He has two hits in six of his last seven games and at least one hit in 31 of his past 35 contests.
Littell has allowed a .325 batting average on the road this season and a .292 mark to right-handed batters. Ozuna has an expected batting average (xBA) of .314 or higher on three of Littell's four pitches, so this is a favorable matchup for the veteran slugger.
MLB Same Game Parlay Odds: +537 via FanDuel Sportsbook (Includes 30% Boost)
Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins
- Leg 1: Minnesota Twins Money Line (-178)
- Leg 2: Simeon Woods Richardson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)
- Leg 3: Carlos Correa Over 1.5 Total Bases (-111)
Our next SGP takes us to Minnesota, where the Twins host the Oakland Athletics in the second game of a four-game set. Oakland has once again fallen on hard times, losing six consecutive games. I expect the Twins to keep Oakland out of the win column for at least another night.
Simeon Woods Richardson will be on the mound for the Twins. While generally not known for high strikeout totals, I like his chances to record at least six strikeouts in this matchup.
Woods Richardson has struck out six batters in each of his last two starts. He also has been much more apt to strike out batters at home in his brief career. He has a 26.4% strikeout rate at home compared to 16.5% on the road.
Oakland hitters have struck out at the league's highest rate over the past 30 days, at 28%. That number only increases when we narrow down the split to the last 14 days (28.3%) and seven days (31.7%).
For the final leg of this SGP, I am betting on Carlos Correa to record at least two total bases on Friday. That feels like light work for Correa, given how he has been swinging it of late. The Twins shortstop has gone scorched earth over his last eight games, accumulating 18 hits and 25 total bases along the way.
When a hitter is on a heater like Correa is, matchups are almost insignificant. But facing rookie Mitch Spence does not figure to be a particularly difficult matchup for Correa to navigate. Spence has only struck out 13.7% of right-handed hitters this season, and Correa has an xBA of at least .276 and an xSLG of at least .456 on all four of Spence's offerings. I expect Correa to keep rolling in this game.
If you are more confident in the Twins as a whole than Woods Richardson, you can reduce Woods Richardson's strikeouts to five and take Minnesota -1.5 on the Runline and keep this SGP over the +400 threshold, although the payout would be slightly reduced (+450).
MLB Same Game Parlay Odds: +510 via Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago White Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leg 1: Ryne Nelson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
- Leg 2: Ryne Nelson Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-142)
- Leg 3: Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
I do not think backing the Chicago White Sox offense is a wise decision in most instances. Still, Ryne Nelson is one of the few pitchers in the Majors who has that effect on me.
Nelson has pitched 51.1 innings for Arizona this season. Among 126 pitchers with at least 50 innings, Nelson has allowed the second-highest batting average against (.321) while compiling the sixth-lowest strikeout rate (14%). If you exclude the game in which he was removed early due to injury, Nelson has simultaneously gone Over this Hits Allowed line while going Under this strikeout line in six of his nine starts this year.
The White Sox have scored a respectable 35 runs in eight games since the return of Luis Robert Jr. All of those games have come against teams in the top half of MLB in ERA, including top-10 pitching staffs in Boston and Seattle. Nelson is considerably worse than the pitchers the White Sox have faced recently, so I am not especially worried about Chicago's year-to-date offensive woes.
Nelson has extreme reverse splits, allowing a .624 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters. That is why I am taking Robert Jr. to record at least two total bases as my final SGP leg.
Nelson features a four-seam fastball, cutter and slider to righties. Last season, Robert Jr. had an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .673 on four-seamers and .670 on cutters. His xSLG was lower (.462) on sliders, but Nelson is serving up an xSLG of .650 on his slider this year.
If the White Sox decide to rest Robert Jr. on Friday, you can easily pivot to Andrew Vaughn. He has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games while recording two or more bases eight times.
This SGP is currently priced at +320 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so we are getting a 50% bump on Caesars (a reminder to always price shop)!
MLB Same Game Parlay Odds: +480 via Caesars Sportsbook
