MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/6)

Playoff races are truly coming down to the wire, and we have two huge in-division matchups on the board, with the Rangers facing off with the Astros and the Twins and Guardians. While not a division matchup, the Dodgers and Marlins are facing off in a huge series for playoff implications as well. Overall, we have a great set of games to build our SGPs from.

Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians

Guardians ML (+105) and o4.5 Runs (+120)

While the Twins have been playing much better than Cleveland recently, I like this pitching matchup better from the Guardians’ side. Gavin Williams has not been quite as good as fellow rookie Tanner Bibee. The young right-hander has had a few elite games this season with double-digit strikeouts and no runs allowed. The Twins have a lot of swing-and-miss, and as long as he is healthy (he only threw one inning his last time out), he should be able to take advantage of their whiff issues. Joe Ryan has been great since returning from the IL, but his HR issues still follow him. He has allowed a long ball in nine straight starts and multiple in five of those starts. While the Guardians offense is not full of power hitters, there are enough guys in there who could take him deep to help them get to this over.

Kole Calhoun 2+ TBs (+145)

Calhoun has been a great pickup for the Guardians, and while his 105 wRC+ is not eye-popping, he is striking out less than he has at other points in his career, and his 0.147 ISO is solid. He is one of the bats in this lineup with the power to take advantage of Ryan’s struggles with the long ball.

Combined Odds: +425

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Red Sox ML (+125) and o4.5 Runs (+155)

Nick Pivetta is listed as the starter, and while he has had a good year overall, most of that is buoyed by his incredible numbers out of the pen. When pitching as a bulk guy, he has shown elite swing and miss while limiting homers and walking hitters at a similar rate. While this is not a bulk appearance, I still believe in his ability to post near-elite numbers. The Rays have some swing-and-miss in the lineup, and when he’s on, Pivetta excels at taking advantage of that. Tyler Glasnow does not allow much in the way of run-scoring typically, but he can get himself into trouble with too many walks. While Boston does not have great overall walk numbers as a team, they have several hitters who have shown a willingness to take a walk in their careers. If they can get guys on base against Glasnow, all they need is that one knock to score some runs.

Triston Casas 2+ TBs (+195)

I’m not sure why the price on this one is this high, but give me Casas, who hits left-handed and has a wRC+ of 133 this season. He has an upper-level ISO and hits the ball in the air setting himself up well to do damage.

Combined Odds: +525

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Nationals ML (+105) and o5.5 Runs (+130)

While this run total feels a bit high for Washington, I have been intrigued by some of the things their offense has done in the second half. Their 92 wRC+ does not jump off the page, but several hitters have taken big steps forward at the top of that order, including CJ Abrams. Jose Butto is by no means a future ace and has struggled with control at the MLB level, and outside of a few stops in the minors, he has never really pitched exceptionally well there, either. The Nationals offense should be able to put up runs at home against Butto, especially if his control eludes him again. Joan Adon is also not the most exciting of arms, but he has shown the ability to quiet an offense for a few frames, and with the run total so high in this one, we can afford for him to give up a few runs as long as the game doesn’t get away from him.

Travis Blankenhorn 2+ TBs (+125)

Blankenhorn definitely could be one of those guys who is just a AAAA star, but this time around, he is showing something. The sample is insanely small, so don’t get too excited, but he is seemingly striking out less, and he has been hitting the ball hard. Those are good skills to mesh together for success.

Combined Odds: +400