Kick off your weekend with a bang via Sleeper. We have a full slate of games this Friday, July 26, and per usual, I’ve got three pitcher props to worth considering. Let’s dive right into the analysis. Have a great weekend!
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Kick off your weekend with a bang via Sleeper. We have a full slate of games this Friday, July 26, and per usual, I’ve got three pitcher props to worth considering. Let’s dive right into the analysis. Have a great weekend!
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 145-86 (62.8%)
One of the more tried and true trends of the 2024 season has been targeting the Red Sox when they face southpaws. They have the worst K% (28.8%) by a wide margin against lefties this season. Cortes is well aware, having recorded eight punchouts against them earlier this month. Boston’s roster now has a combined 34% K% and .320 xwOBA across 56 plate appearances against Nestor.
The list goes well past just Cortes though. 18 of the 27 left-handed starters to face them this year have found seven strikeouts or more against them. We’re only asking for six for nasty Nestor. He might give up some damage, but he should be able to get to at least six in this one before all is said and done.
This is an interesting line to give to Sonny Gray. He ranks in the top 95th percentile in K% and 97th in CSW% among starting pitchers on the season. With those rates, it should come as no surprise to see that he has exceeded this line in 15 of his 18 starts this season. That includes a six-strikeout outing against Washington a couple of weeks ago, who he faces tonight. They aren’t known to be the most strikeout-prone, but their lineup isn’t anything special, as evidenced by Dylan Cease firing a nine-strikeout no-hitter against them yesterday.
The Rockies lefty has been one of the easier starters to find hits against for quite some time. This season is no different, as he ranks in the bottom 8th percentile in average exit velocity, and bottom 6th in expected batting average as well. Freeland has allowed six or more base hits in seven of his nine starts this year, 20-of-29 last season, and 21-of-31 in 2022 as well. Add that all up and you have a 70% hit rate on this prop over the past three seasons.
Tonight he faces the San Francisco Giants for a second consecutive start. Freeland only allowed five hits in that outing six days ago, but typically these repeated matchups favor the offense, not the pitcher. The Giants have been excellent against lefties for the majority of the season too, and are t-5th in wRC+ (127) in wRC+ and 8th in batting average (.267) over the past 30 days versus left-handers. Lastly, the SF roster has seen the ball very well out of his hand in the past. They own a collective .300 expected batting average across 79 plate appearances against Freeland.
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