Unlike a lot of Mondays, we have a pretty jammed-packed MLB slate to kick off the week. 12 games take place today, presenting plenty of player prop action worth diving into. Here are three of my favorite looks for Monday, July 29.
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Unlike a lot of Mondays, we have a pretty jammed-packed MLB slate to kick off the week. 12 games take place today, presenting plenty of player prop action worth diving into. Here are three of my favorite looks for Monday, July 29.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 147-87 (62.8%)
Wheeler is among the best-starting pitchers in the game these days, but he draws a tough matchup with the New York Yankees coming into town. They are very patient at the plate, owning the best wRC+ (161) and sixth highest walk rate (10.5%) against righties over the past two weeks. Wheeler hasn’t been as sharp with his control this season, and has permitted two or more free passes in 10 of his last 12 starts.
The Yankees flamethrowing rookie isn’t known for his pitch count efficiency, however, this line feels far too short based on his raw ability. He went through a rough three-start stretch but appears back in form, and has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three outings. Since the start of May, when Gil’s dominance really started to shine through, he has gone over this line in nine of his last 14 starts. On the season as a whole, he ranks in the top 86th percentile in xERA, 91st in K%, and 94th in expected batting average.
Meanwhile, he faces the Phillies who have been struggling at the plate against righties as of late. They are 25th in wRC+ (65) over the past two weeks and have averaged the ninth fewest pitches per plate appearance this season. Lastly, the Yankees bullpen has been overworked as of late, so getting Gil to pitch into the sixth would be more than welcomed from Aaron Boone in this one.
Anytime we get Eovaldi at a reasonable price to go six innings, we have to take it. He’s a veteran workhorse and has gone over this line in six of his last seven starts. His 3.75 pitches per plate appearance this year is 37th best out of 115 qualified starters, and he ranks in the top 93rd percentile in xFIP, 88th in CSW%, and 76th in K%. Texas could really use him to go at least six innings in this one too, considering they only got three innings from both starters over the weekend. He faces St. Louis, who is 17th in wRC+ (98) and 24th in BB% (6%) against righties over the past two weeks.
Tyler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from him, follow @808Paperboi
